[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 312035
TCDAT1

HURRICANE KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112012
500 PM AST FRI AUG 31 2012

KIRK HAS BECOME A LITTLE RAGGED LOOKING IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS NOW DISPLACED TO THE EAST
OF THE CENTER. THIS MAY BE DUE TO SOME UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IMPINGING ON KIRK FROM A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED TO
THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE. A BLEND OF DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND
SAB RESULTS IN AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. IT
APPEARS THAT KIRK HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH MOST OF
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONLY SLOW WEAKENING FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR SO WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATERS.
AFTER THAT TIME THE WEAKENING SHOULD BE A LITTLE FASTER BEFORE KIRK
IS ABSORBED BY A FRONT IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. KIRK WILL LIKELY BECOME
POST-TROPICAL BETWEEN THE 48 AND 72 HOUR FORECAST TIMES...BUT THAT
IS NOT SHOWN EXPLICITLY HERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/11...AS KIRK IS NOW ROUNDING THE
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING KIRK RECURVING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW IN THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS ONLY AND IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS UNTIL THE CYCLONE IS ABSORBED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/2100Z 32.2N  50.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 34.3N  49.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 37.3N  46.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 41.2N  42.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  02/1800Z 46.0N  36.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  03/1800Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


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