[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 31 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIRK AT 31/1500 UTC WAS NEAR 31.2N 50.8W
MOVING NORTH AT 5 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS
972 MB WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110
KT. PLEASE READ THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT1
/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDS UP TO 100 NM FROM THE CENTER AT ALL
QUADRANTS.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE AT 31/1500 UTC WAS NEAR
16.2N 49.1W MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 999 MB WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PLEASE READ THE NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE
PUBLIC ADVISORY...MIATCPAT1/ WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN
48W-55W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A WEAK 1011 MB LOW WAS SPOTTED EARLIER THIS MORNING BY A
SCATTEROMETER PASS REVEALING THE CIRCULATION E OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 15N21W. WHILE THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY LACKS OF
CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER...A TROPICAL WAVE COULD BE ANALYZED
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS ON THE SURFACE MAP DEPENDING ON
AVAILABLE DATA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS WEST AFRICA TO THE
COAST OF MAURITANIA AT 19N16W CONTINUING SW TO A WEAK 1011 MB
LOW NEAR 15N21W TO 12N26W. DUE TO THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
AROUND TROPICAL STORM LESLIE...THE ITCZ AXIS IS CURRENTLY
DISRUPTED. SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WELL TO THE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 5N-12N E OF 24W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RETURN FLOW 10-15 KT COVERS MOST OF THE BASIN W OF 87W
...GUSTING TO 25 KT OVER THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS OF
LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DRAWN ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BAY OF
CAMPECHE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WRN GULF BETWEEN 89W-96W. THIS
REGION OF CONVECTION WILL DRIFT WESTWARD AGAINST THE COAST OF
MEXICO AND TEXAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF E OF 87W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF 76W
...ASSOCIATED TO THE ERN PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING INTO
THIS AREA ACROSS S-WRN PANAMA TO NRN COLOMBIA. THE OVERALL
ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED ALOFT FROM AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE SAME UPPER
FEATURE IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF WEAK SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR NW BASIN S OF 20N W OF 83W. A
WEAK/SLOW MOVING SURFACE TROUGH MOVED ACROSS THE THE LESSER
ANTILLES OVERNIGHT AND NOW IS ANALYZED OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN
WATERS FROM GUADELOUPE TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N65W.
THIS FEATURE IS GENERATING A SMALL CLUSTER OF WEAK SHOWERS
WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS DOMINATED BY DRY AIR AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE/TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WRN
ATLC SUPPORTING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF AN IMAGINARY
LINE EXTENDING FROM 31N65W ALONG 27N72W TO 28N77W. SHORT RANGE
COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL BE SLOW TO
MOVE EASTWARD OR BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. OTHERWISE...ASIDE
HURRICANE KIRK AND TROPICAL STORM LESLIE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC BASIN DISCUSSION AREA IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING
ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLC...AND A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE EASTERN ATLC. THE OVERALL ACTIVITY IS
ENHANCED ALOFT BY SAHARAN DUST NOTED E OF 40W ON GOES-R IMAGERY
AND METEOSAT-9 SAL PRODUCT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EMBEDDED IN
THIS ENVIRONMENT ALOFT CENTERED NEAR 32N32W GENERATING A BROAD
AREA OF WIDELY ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS N OF 26N BETWEEN 27W-40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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