[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE AT 21/1800 UTC IS NEAR 15.3N 53.2W...OR
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM E OF GUADELOUPE. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 16 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1008 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 40 KT. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY...
MIATCPAT4/ WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CENTER FROM 13N-16N
BETWEEN 52W-56W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ELSEWHERE FROM 11N-20N BETWEEN 52W-58W. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN INITIATED BY THE INDIVIDUAL GOVERNMENTS OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS FROM DOMINICA AND GUADELOUPE NORTHWARD.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N29W TO AN
EMBEDDED 1010 MB LOW AT 10N31W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
A LARGE AREA FROM 6N-15N BETWEEN 29W-36W.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N63W TO 8N64W
MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD AND
WINDWARD ISLANDS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 13N.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N87W TO
12N88W MOVING W AT 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W
THE 1010 MB LOW NEAR 10N31W TO 9N35W AND 10N43W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 30W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N97W.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N96W TO THE LOW CENTER TO
22N97W. THIS SYSTEM IS DRIFTING W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE LOW
CENTER FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 93W-97W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 31N85W TO 25N92W TO 25N95W
MOVING E. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 45 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. 5-10 KT NE WINDS ARE N OF THIS
TROUGH. 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE S OF THIS TROUGH.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER
THE N GULF N OF 26N SUPPORTING BOTH SURFACE TROUGHS.
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE GULF. EXPECT
CONTINUED CONVECTION WITH BOTH SURFACE FEATURES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE.
A 1009 MB LOW IS ALSO OVER N COLOMBIA AT 9N75W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND N
COLOMBIA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 74W-78W...AND FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN
79W-84W. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN
63W-69W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W WITH
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOST IMPORTANTLY CONVECTION
FRON T.D. NINE WILL ADVECT OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITHIN 24 HOURS.
ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N64W. A
1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N49W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N32W TO
26N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH.
AFRICAN DUST EXTENDS FROM 10N-34N E OF 27W...AND FROM 10N-26N
BETWEEN 26W-63W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE N
OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N
BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLANTIC FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 64W-80W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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