[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 170603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON AT 17/0300 UTC IS NEAR
34.6N 50.3W. GORDON IS MOVING EASTWARD 15 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 60 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 75 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN
A 30 NM RADIUS OF 35N49W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 36N TO 38N BETWEEN 48W AND 50W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE
ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 32N TO 40N BETWEEN
38W AND 52W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W/94W TO THE SOUTH OF 23N...MOVING
ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. THIS WAVE IS
A REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG COVERS MEXICO BETWEEN WESTERN
GUATEMALA AND 94W...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 22N
BETWEEN 91W AND 96W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD 9 KNOTS. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IF NECESSARY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

THE MOST RECENT RAWINSONDE DATA FOR BAMAKO IN MALI SHOW
THAT A TROPICAL WAVE HAS PASSED THAT STATION DURING THE LAST
48 HOURS OR SO. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OTHER OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST A COMPARATIVELY LOWER AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS
ALONG 17W TO THE SOUTH OF 12N. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 19W AND 21W...AND
FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 23W AND 25W. THIS PRECIPITATION ALSO
IS IN THE MONSOON TROUGH.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W TO THE SOUTH
OF 20N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM
11N TO 14N BETWEEN 32W AND 39W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N58W 16N58W 11N55W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 18N
BETWEEN 54W AND 60W...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG HAS ENTERED THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 14N TO 21N
BETWEEN 60W AND 64W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR
14N17W TO 12N20W 10N31W 9N37W 10N42W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
10N42W TO 11N49W AND 11N54W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 28W AND 33W
AND FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 38W AND 40W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 34W AND 46W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER TEXAS
GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS TOWARD 20N100W IN MEXICO.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH
OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 94W.

THE REST OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW. THIS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF A LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA TO ALABAMA. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 92W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W/94W TO THE SOUTH OF 23N...MOVING
ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. THIS WAVE IS
A REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG COVERS MEXICO BETWEEN WESTERN
GUATEMALA AND 94W...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 22N
BETWEEN 91W AND 96W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD 9 KNOTS.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IF NECESSARY.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1016 MB MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N75W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD THE
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO GULF COAST.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL
CYCLONE...20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 27N64W ATLANTIC OCEAN
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 22N66W AND 19N69W...AND THEN
TOWARD JAMAICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE MONA PASSAGE FROM 17N TO 19N.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 18N80W 13N79W...TO COLOMBIA
ABOUT 40 NM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE GULF OF URABA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 17N71W
TO 10N72W NEAR LAKE MARACAIBO IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N75W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH 8N81W
IN PANAMA...BEYOND 10N85W IN COSTA RICA. EARLIER CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION THAT WAS WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 10N81W HAS BEEN
WEAKENING DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS IN COLOMBIA AND ITS EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
COASTAL WATERS FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 73W ALONG THE COLOMBIA/
VENEZUELA BORDER AND 79W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 14N
BETWEEN 69W AND 77W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 25N48W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N TO 30N
BETWEEN 38W AND 55W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 22N30W
TO 16N36W TO 8N40W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 34N13W...TO 29N30W...TO A 1023 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N50W...TO A 1016 MB MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N75W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD THE
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO GULF COAST.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...NFDHSFAT1 AND MIAHSFAT2...
FOR DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM GORDON...FOR DETAILS ABOUT
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 10 FEET TO THE
NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 35W AND 55W DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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