[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250534
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED APR 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N13W TO 4N19W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 1N29W TO
1N 40W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 47W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-4N BETWEEN 27W-30W. SMALL
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 5N16W TO THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR
6N10W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE GULF INTO THE W ATLC WITH
ANY ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES IN THE W ATLC. A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 26N89W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALSO DOMINATE THE GULF WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE E TO THE W ATLC BY LATE WED WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING W TO THE TEXAS COAST THROUGH SAT. SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FAR W GULF BEGINNING TONIGHT
SPREADING E ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY FRI WITH LITTLE CHANGE
INTO SAT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG TOWARD N GULF COAST SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC DIPS S OVER
THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A
STATIONARY FRONT IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC AS IT CROSSES HISPANIOLA
NEAR 19N70W CONTINUING ALONG 14N73W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA NEAR
11N73W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITHIN 120 NM W AND 75 NM E OF THE
TROUGH. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL VENEZUELA. THE CONVERGENCE
OF UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FLOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N TO INLAND OVER
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT W AND DISSIPATE
WED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC
LATE WED ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE FROM E OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE
W ATLC SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W/CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 32N62W EXTENDING TO 26N65W TO OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR
19N70W WHERE IT BECOMES A SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150/200 NM E
OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH AS DENOTED BY A WIND SHIFT IS TO
THE W OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 29N71W 24N73W ACROSS THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 21N77W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ARE W OF THE FRONT THUS LIMITING
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N58W FURTHER ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC
CENTERED NEAR 27N45W EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH S INTO THE
TROPICS TO NEAR 11N37W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM 31N48W ALONG 26N46W TO 21N47W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-28N E OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO 40W.
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC W OF 60W WITH A
WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH
AND ANCHORED NE OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES GIVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. STATIONARY FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY E AND DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY FRI. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
N GULF OF MEXICO WILL SHIFT E TO S OF BERMUDA THROUGH THE N
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 28N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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