[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE APR 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
04N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
04N19W TO 00N34W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 49W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 04N TO 05N BETWEEN 08W AND 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE
U.S. INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE CAROLINAS TO A BROAD BASE
NEAR 20N92W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR ALOFT W OF
THE TROUGH IN STRONG NW FLOW. A NEARLY STATIONARY 1021 MB HIGH
IS CENTERED ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 29N91W. THE HIGH IS
SUPPORTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. LIGHT
TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE GULF. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE WED AS THE THE HIGH SHIFTS E OVER FLORIDA.
EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH S-SE WINDS W OF 90W BY THU MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
W-SW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE REGION BETWEEN THE BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN NEAR
12N68W. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH
ATLC THROUGH NW HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA TO 17N80W. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 19N74W TO A LOW IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W
IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS NEAR THE
TROUGH AXIS...WITH THE MOST INTENSE TSTM ACTIVITY S OF 12N
BETWEEN 74W AND 78W. MODERATE E-SE TRADES PREVAIL IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY FAIR SKIES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD EXTENDS INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM 32N64W TO HISPANIOLA CONTINUES TO ENHANCE SHOWER
ACTIVITY ALONG AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EAST OF THE FRONT
FROM 19N TO 28N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N73W ACROSS
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W. FARTHER EAST...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED
SOUTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N33W. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DUE TO
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N44W IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG 34N47W TO 30N48W TO 26N46W TO 20N48W. THE TROUGH IS
ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 39W AND 45W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MUNDELL



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