[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221108
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER OF GUINEA
AND SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W...TO 6N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
6N15W TO 2N20W 2N28W AND 1N34W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG IS TO THE SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN 13W AND 25W...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS TO THE SOUTH OF 5N
BETWEEN 25W AND 36W...ISOLATED MODERATE IS TO THE SOUTH OF
5N BETWEEN 36W AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 90W...ACROSS
FLORIDA...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 70W...
AND PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT
IS TO THE EAST OF 89W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT STARTS WITH A 1002 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
29N85W...ABOUT 50 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND.
A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1002 MB LOW CENTER TO NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
1002 MB LOW CENTER TO 25N85W AND THE EAST CENTRAL YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO NEAR 19N91W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE
EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...ALONG 27N83W TO WESTERN CUBA TO 19N87W
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILS THE
COLD FRONT...EXTENDING FROM THE 1002 MB LOW CENTER TO 25N90W
AND 24N94W. A TOTALLY SEPARATE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N84W TO SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA NEAR
29N90W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS TO
A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N97W IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE BAHAMAS...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 20N81W TO 22N78W TO 24N76W...AND
WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N76W 28N74W 32N71W. THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND FLORIDA...AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND/OR THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE
FORECAST MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE 20 TO 30 KNOT
WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT WILL BE RELATED TO THE
COLD FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE 20 TO
30 WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 TO 13 FEET...RELATIVE
TO THE COLD FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND PARTS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO REACH
8 FEET WITH THE COLD FRONT. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N52W TO 19N60W AND 18N65W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W
AND 60W...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W
AND 67W. THE 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR GUADELOUPE FOR THE TIME
PERIOD ENDING AT 22/0000 UTC WAS 0.95 INCHES. UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEEP LAYER GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING FROM 12N
TO 18N BETWEEN 82W AND 90W...COVERING PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO HONDURAS TO
EL SALVADOR. THIS PRECIPITATION IS IN AN AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL
TROUGH...PART OF THE OVERALL DEEP LAYER GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 70W...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 70W...RELATED
TO A DEEP LAYER CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH. ONE SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 32N46W 27N48W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO
30N43W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 30N43W TO 24N47W AND
20N52W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 20N52W TO 19N60W AND 18N65W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 28N TO 32N
BETWEEN 39W AND 41W...AND FROM 25N TO 26N WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 43W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM
20N TO 25N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W...FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W AND
60W...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND
67W. THE 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR GUADELOUPE FOR THE TIME
PERIOD ENDING AT 22/0000 UTC WAS 0.95 INCHES. PLEASE READ THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS THAT ARE NEAR THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
FRONTAL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE ENTIRE 32N42W 18N65W FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1022 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N59W...TO BERMUDA...32N72W
AND 33N78W. BROAD AND WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF
30W. THIS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW REMAINS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO.
A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 37N28W. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE 1028 MB HIGH CENTER THROUGH 32N29W TO 25N34W
17N38W AND 8N41W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT








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