[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 10N14W...
TO 7N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N18W TO 3N30W 1N40W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 44W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR
2S49W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IS TO THE
SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN 15W AND 22W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IS TO THE SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN 22W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 90W...ACROSS
FLORIDA...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 70W...
AND PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS
TO THE EAST OF 90W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
STARTS WITH A 1000 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N86W...
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE 1000 MB LOW CENTER TO FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W AND 30N80W.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1000 MB LOW CENTER TO 25N86W AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO NEAR 20N90W. A SURFACE TROUGH
TRAILS THE COLD FRONT...EXTENDING FROM THE 1000 MB LOW CENTER
TO 26N90W AND 25N94W. A SEPARATE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N86W TO SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA NEAR
29N90W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS TO
A 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 21N95W IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...INCLUDING
THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO THE WEST OF 74W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 20N TO THE
NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 80W AND 82W. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA...AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND/OR THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT
THE FORECAST MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE 20 TO 30 KNOT
WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT WILL BE RELATED TO THE
COLD FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE
20 TO 30 WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 TO 13 FEET...
RELATIVE TO THE COLD FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND PARTS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO REACH
8 FEET WITH THE COLD FRONT. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N52W TO 18N60W AND 19N64W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W
AND 60W...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W
AND 66W. THE 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR GUADELOUPE FOR THE TIME
PERIOD ENDING AT 22/0000 UTC WAS 0.95 INCHES. UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYER GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH. BROAD
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING FROM
SOUTHEASTERN GUATEMALA AND WESTERN EL SALVADOR...TO SOUTH
CENTRAL HONDURAS AND EASTERN EL SALVADOR...INTO EASTERN HONDURAS.
THIS PRECIPITATION IS IN AN AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH...
PART OF THE OVERALL DEEP LAYER GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 70W...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 70W...RELATED
TO A DEEP LAYER CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH. ONE SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 32N49W 28N54W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO
31N44W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N44W TO
27N47W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N41W 24N46W 20N52W.
A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 20N52W TO 18N60W AND 19N64W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 26N TO 30N
BETWEEN 40W AND 42W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W...FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN
54W AND 60W...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN
60W AND 64W. THE 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR GUADELOUPE FOR THE
TIME PERIOD ENDING AT 22/0000 UTC WAS 0.95 INCHES. PLEASE READ
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS THAT ARE NEAR THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE 32N49W 28N54W SURFACE TROUGH...AND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES/SHEAR AXIS. THIS ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES
AROUND A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N59W...TO
BERMUDA...32N72W AND 33N78W. BROAD AND DIFFUSE UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 10N
TO THE EAST OF 30W. THIS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW REMAINS FROM AN
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS
AGO. A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 37N26W. A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH CENTER THROUGH 32N29W TO 28N32W
22N38W AND 13N45W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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