[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211151
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT APR 21 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA IN AFRICA
NEAR 6N11W TO 5N12W AND 4N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
4N16W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 23W...TO 3S32W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS TO THE
SOUTH OF 3N TO THE EAST OF 5W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN
20W AND 35W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 5N TO
THE EAST OF 32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH...THAT IS MOVING THROUGH EAST TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...TO 25N94W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR
24N98W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO
THE WEST OF 94W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER FROM 24N TO 26N TO
THE EAST OF 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 87W AND 89W.
NORTHWEST OF 23N98W 25N90W 29N90W. A SEPARATE SURFACE TROUGH IS
IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 26N86 22N88W TO 18N89W IN
THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS WITH
THUNDER ALSO ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH
OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N TO THE WEST OF 77W.
THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN. MORE RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND IN FLORIDA TODAY. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD RAPIDLY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND/OR THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE FORECAST MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT...AND THE 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
THAT WILL BE RELATED TO THE COLD FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT
IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO AND THE 20 KNOT WIND SPEEDS THAT ARE
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY IT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 64W/65W FROM
11N TO 19N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM
12N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 26N70W
TO JAMAICA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA...TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 79W...RELATED
TO A SURFACE TROUGH AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY THAT EXTEND
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS
COSTA RICA AND SOUTHERN NICARAGUA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT...THAT NOW IS IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE U.S.A.
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH
SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT
AND 20 TO 30 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND THE 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS...THAT ARE FORECAST TO BE OCCURRING NEAR THE FRONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO 26N48W. A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO 31N46W. A SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES FROM 31N46W TO 25N50W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE
NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. PLEASE READ THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT
WINDS THAT ARE NEAR THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE WEST OF THE 32N45W
25N50W FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES
AROUND A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N63W...
TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 63W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A 22N34W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 15N40W.
A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 36N28W. ONE SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO 26N32W 17N38W AND 10N40W.
A SECOND RIDGE IS ALONG 27N23W 19N21W TO 11N19W. BROAD UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 24N20W AND 21N10W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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