[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT APR 21 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA IN AFRICA NEAR
10N14W TO 6N16W AND 3N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N21W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 31W...TO THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL NEAR 3S41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
TO THE SOUTH OF 2N TO THE EAST OF 4W AND IN AN AREA THAT IS
BOUNDED BY 3N25W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 29W...TO 2N31W TO 4N27W
AND 3N25W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 5N
TO THE EAST OF 32W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH...THAT IS MOVING THROUGH TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...TO 28N95W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...
TO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR 25N99W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE NORTHWEST OF 23N98W 25N90W 29N90W. A SEPARATE
SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 28N84W
24N86W TO 21N88W IN THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE...TO ISOLATED STRONG...
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO/FLORIDA/
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA FROM 24N TO 30N
BETWEEN 78W AND 87W. THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS
IS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN. MORE RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND IN FLORIDA TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SEVERE WEATHER MAY
DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD RAPIDLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND/OR THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE FORECAST
MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND
8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT WILL BE RELATED TO THE COLD FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT
IN ABOUT 30 HOURS OR SO AND THE 20 KNOT WIND SPEEDS THAT ARE
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY IT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 18N59W...
ACROSS DOMINICA TO 14N62W...TO COASTAL VENEZUELA NEAR 11N63W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 12N TO 13N
BETWEEN 59W AND 62W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS
THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 22N70W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ACROSS WESTERN HISPANIOLA...TO 17N76W TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF JAMAICA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA...TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 80W...RELATED
TO A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT...THAT NOW IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE U.S.A.
BY SUNDAY. PLEASE READ THE ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT AND 20 TO 30 KNOT
WIND SPEEDS AND THE 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS...THAT ARE FORECAST
TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE U.S.A. BY SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO 27N48W. A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO 31N46W. A SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES FROM 31N46W TO 25N50W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. PLEASE READ THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS THAT ARE NEAR THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE WEST
OF THE 32N45W 25N50W FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
33N63W...TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 63W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 23N35W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO
16N43W. A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 36N29W. ONE
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO 24N37W AND 18N48W.
A SECOND RIDGE IS ALONG 26N27W 17N25W TO 7N21W. BROAD UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 25N18W AND 21N10W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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