[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W TO
3N13W...WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO 3N20W TO 1N30W TO THE COAST
OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER LIBERIA FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 7W-10W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-3S BETWEEN 31W-37W...AND ALONG THE COAST
OF BRAZIL FROM 2N-2S BETWEEN 45W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE W ATLANTIC PRODUCING 15-25 KT
SE RETURN FLOW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONGEST WINDS ARE
NOTED IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. RESIDUAL TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
THE W ATLANTIC IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA MOVING
W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXITING THE E GULF E OF 85W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG
95W MOVING E. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT
...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER FLORIDA
TO MOVE OVER THE E GULF...WHILE SURFACE RETURN FLOW PRODUCES
RAIN AND SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 20N61W TO S OF HISPANIOLA ALONG 18N66W 17N71W. RAIN AND
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT AS CONFIRMED BY PUERTO
RICO RADAR. SIMILAR RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...
CENTRAL CUBA...AND JAMAICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA...AND N VENEZUELA NEAR LAKE MARACAIBO.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER INLAND W HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND S
MEXICO. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. A RATHER LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER
THE CARIBBEAN. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED. SOUTH AMERICA N OF
THE EQUATOR DOES HAVE EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN
TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT...MORE RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR
32N76W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N52W TO
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N61W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. RAIN AND
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A 1031
MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE THE AZORES NEAR 39N29W. FURTHER
S... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 21W-24W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N
BETWEEN 50W-70W SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO MOVE E AT 10-15 KT WITH
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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