[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141738
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE IVORY COAST NEAR 4N7W TO
1N17W...WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 1N30W TO THE COAST OF
BRAZIL NEAR 2S43W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS NOTICED S OF 5N BETWEEN 30W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF BRINGING DRY AIR AND
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TO THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE IS ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ASSOCIATED TO THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDS SW INTO THE AREA...AND TOGETHER WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT PLAINS...IS
GENERATING A MODERATE E-W PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF WITH
15-25 KT ESE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN...OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 30
KT NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS WHERE THE GRADIENT IS THE
MOST CONSTRICTED. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...WITH SE WINDS
INCREASING TODAY INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS GRADIENT WILL BEGIN
TO RELAX SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE FAR ERN BASIN
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS A GREAT
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS KEEPING
MOST OF THE AREA UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE BASIN. HOWEVER...THE SRN EXTENSION
OF A COLD FRONT ENTERED THE FAR N CENTRAL BASIN A FEW HOURS AGO
ADVECTING MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA N OF
17N BETWEEN 66W-75W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTICED OVER THE E
AND NRN COASTAL WATERS OF JAMAICA LIKELY ASSOCIATED TO DAY-TIME
HEATING...INSTABILITY...AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. OTHERWISE...
TRADEWIND FLOW OF 10-15 KTS IS REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
STRONGER NE FLOW FILTERING THROUGH THE WINDWARD AND MONA
PASSAGES THROUGH SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE WRN ATLC
THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS SSW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N51W 22N60W
INTO THE FAR N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG THE MONA PASSAGE.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
80-120 NM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED. A REGION OF SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS FOUND W OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS MOVING INTO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS LEAVING FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
FOUND ELSEWHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL CONVECTION...ASSOCIATED TO
A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE AZORES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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