[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA AT 22/1500 UTC IS NEAR
13.6N 47.6W...OR ABOUT 870 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. OPHELIA IS MOVING WEST
11 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 65 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT OPHELIA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/
ADVISORIES ABOUT OPHELIA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 45W AND 47W. THIS

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N29W 16N30W 10N31W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 32W AND 36W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 19N16W TO
15N18W 10N23W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM
4N TO 6N BETWEEN 17W AND 19W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 14W AND 22W...AND FROM 6N TO 13N
BETWEEN 44W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF
26N TO THE WEST OF 90W. THE CYCLONIC FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO
NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N89W IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS TO 26N91W AND 21N91W. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THIS TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE CENTRAL
GULF WATERS...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FROM 28N TO 30N. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 27N TO THE COAST BETWEEN 90W AND 94W. A SECOND
SURFACE TROUGH HAS REACHED THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...ALONG 87W/88W
FROM 17N TO 23N. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 25 TO THE EAST OF 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH HAS REACHED THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...ALONG 87W/88W
FROM 17N TO 23N. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE IN COASTAL AREAS FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA COAST
OF CUBA THAT IS ALONG 81W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST FROM
19N TO 20N. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
WATERS THAT ARE ABOUT 40 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF JAMAICA TO
A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN EASTERN COASTAL
NICARAGUA. THE MONSOON TROUGH GOES FROM COASTAL COLOMBIA NEAR
12N75W ACROSS PANAMA NEAR 9N79W...AND BEYOND PANAMA NEAR 8N82W.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS OF 11N79W TO THE NORTH OF PANAMA. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 19N TO THE WEST OF 77W.
A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE MONA PASSAGE. THIS LOW
CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD SINCE PASSING TO THE NORTH OF
GUADELOUPE YESTERDAY. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE TIME
PERIOD ENDING AT 22/1200 UTC WERE 0.57 INCHES FOR SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO...AND 0.65 INCHES FOR ST. THOMAS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES 9N58W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE TIME PERIOD
ENDING AT 22/1200 UTC FOR TRINIDAD WAS 0.95 INCHES. RAINSHOWERS
STILL ARE MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AT
THIS TIME. RAINSHOWER ARE POSSIBLE IN SURFACE CONFLUENT WIND
FLOW AND AFTERNOON HEATING ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE
EAST OF 77W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO 27N64W
26N74W...TO 24N76W IN THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA TO 19N77W IN THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 68W AND 73W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 22N TO 28N
BETWEEN 58W AND 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N23W
TO 26N33W AND 26N47W...CURVING TO 20N53W TO 9N58W ABOUT 150 NM
TO THE EAST OF VENEZUELA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM
T.S. OPHELIA REACHES 26N TO THE NORTH AND 51W TO THE WEST. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS AROUND THE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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