[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281203
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM RINA IS CENTERED NEAR 21.3N 86.9W AT 28/1200 UTC
OR ABOUT 17 NM N OF CANCUN MEXICO MOVING N-NE AT 4 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-24N
BETWEEN 85W-87W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 82W-88W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 14N16W ALONG 10N19W TO 9N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
9N21W ALONG 8N29W TO 7N34W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150/175 NM OF LINE FROM 8N28W TO
4N38W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 10W-17W INCLUDING THE COAST OF SW AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM RINA REMAINS THE PRIMARY FOCUS THIS MORNING AS IT
MOVES OVER THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE OVER THE E GULF...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE E GULF ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN DRAWING
TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE GULF WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-29N W OF 91W TO OVER
FLORIDA. AN UPPER TROUGH HAS PUSHED S INTO THE NW GULF
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS RAPIDLY MOVING E AND AT 28/0900
UTC EXTENDS OFF LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W ALONG 26N96W TO INLAND
OVER MEXICO NEAR 24N98W THEN EXTENDS NW ALONG THE E SLOPES OF
THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AS A STATIONARY FRONT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW GULF W OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER
W LOUISIANA...TEXAS...AND NE MEXICO. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT
REMAINS OVER THE SW GULF GIVING THAT AREA OF THE GULF CLEAR
SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO NW YUCATAN PENINSULA SAT MORNING
THEN FROM EXTREME S FLORIDA TO NE YUCATAN PENINSULA
SUN MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL. TROPICAL STORM RINA
WILL MOVE SLOWLY NNE AND EMERGE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
LATER TODAY THEN TURN SE TONIGHT AND SAT BECOMING
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SAT AFTERNOON MOVING SSE OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL STORM RINA REMAINS THE PRIMARY FOCUS AGAIN THIS MORNING
AS IT MOVES OVER THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED JUST W OF JAMAICA NEAR
19N78W COVERING THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W AND EXTENDS TO OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC. LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS
ALONG 81W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
NEAR 19N81W TO 12N81W AND COUPLED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT PROVIDED
BY THE UPPER RIDGE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM N OF 12N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 75W-85W. THE
MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA
NEAR 11N73W ALONG 11N77W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC
REGION NEAR 10N83W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N
BETWEEN 75W-78W. TROPICAL STORM RINA WILL MOVE SLOWLY NNE AND
EMERGE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATER TODAY THEN TURN SE TONIGHT
AND SAT BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SAT AFTERNOON MOVING SSE
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SUN THEN TO A REMNANT LOW SUN NIGHT
THROUGH TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC
W OF 68W DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE E GULF OF MEXICO
INTO THE W ATLC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-31N W OF 72W TO OVER FLORIDA AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N-28N
BETWEEN 68W-71W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL
ATLC EXTENDING FROM A 1024 MB HIGH IN THE E ATLC NEAR 33N29W
THROUGH A 1020 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N50W TO ALONG
31N75W AND WITH DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS GIVING THE AREA N OF 25N
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS
THE TROPICAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH AN UPPER LOW
NEAR 22N38W TO A SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR 17N44W TO A WEAKER THIRD
UPPER LOW NEAR 14N57W AND SUPPORTING A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
21N38W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N TO 25N40W AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 17N30W
TO 19N34W AND FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 34W-39W. A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N41W THROUGH A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 14N46W TO
13N48W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
15N-18N BETWEEN 40W-44W. ATLC SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 31N WILL SHIFT
NE AND WEAKEN THROUGH SUN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE W ATLC
ON SAT BEFORE STALLING AND THEN WEAKENING LATE SUN INTO MON AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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