[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101111
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 0900 UTC A 1002 MB NON-TROPICAL LOW IS CENTERED INLAND W
OF DAYTONA FLORIDA. THE LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE
WINDS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND OVER PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY
INLAND FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 81W-84W. THE CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT
INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IS DECREASING SINCE THE LOW WILL BE
MOVING W OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 19N57W
TO 10N62W MOVING W AT 15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOWS A POLEWARD EXTENSION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 56W-65W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 57W-59W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N-17N
BETWEEN 57W-62W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N15W TO
10N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
10N21W TO 07N40W TO 06N54W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
03N-10N BETWEEN 10W-37W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 07N-14N BETWEEN 40W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1002 MB LOW IS TRAVERSING NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA. SEE ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO
SW GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 27N82W 24N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ON
THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 82W-85W. ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM 29N95W TO 26N93W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN
92W-95W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER S MEXICO FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 91W-95W. EXPECT THE
FLORIDA LOW TO BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE IN THE NE GULF
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED E OF NICARAGUA NEAR
14N79W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 72W-77W. A TROPICAL
WAVE IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SEE ABOVE. THE MONSOON TROUGH
IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM N COLOMBIA TO THE LOW CENTER TO N
COSTA RICA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND FROM
COSTA RICA TO S HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 75W. AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR PRECIPITATION TO PERSIST OVER...THE E
CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE...OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
DUE THE SURFACE LOW...OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE MONSOON
TROUGH...AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA S OF BELIZE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A LOW IS TRAVERSING NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA.
SEE ABOVE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE
BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLANTIC FROM 20N-31N BETWEEN 70W-78W. A COLD
FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N37W TO 27N40W TO
23N50W TO 23N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-25N
BETWEEN 43W-57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE FRONT. ALSO OF NOTE...A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLAND NEAR 20N22W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION
OVER THE W ATLANTIC BETWEEN 68W-75W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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