[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100544
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 0300 UTC A 999 MB GALE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL
FLORIDA PRODUCING VERY STRONG WINDS ALONG THE EAST COASTS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA. BUOY 41009 REPORTED 999.7 MB SURFACE
PRESSURE AND 40 KT WINDS. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM LACK SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO DESIGNATE IT AS A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND OVER NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA BY MONDAY MORNING...AND
OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR NORTH FLORIDA BY
EARLY TUESDAY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 18N55W
TO 10N61W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOWS A POLEWARD EXTENSION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 55W-61W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN
56W-58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 56W-62W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
08N16W TO 06N20W TO 07N24W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N24W TO 08N30W TO 07N40W TO 04N48W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-10N BETWEEN 06W-20W...AND FROM
03N-09N BETWEEN 25W-40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN 41W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A GALE LOW IS TRAVERSING NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA.
SEE ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO W CUBA
NEAR 23N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ON THE FLORIDA GULF COAST
FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 82W-84W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS
OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM 30N93W TO 25N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 93W-96W MOVING E.
ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
S MEXICO FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 91W-97W. EXPECT THE GALE LOW TO BE
THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE IN THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO W
CUBA ALONG 11N75W 23N83W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-20N
BETWEEN 73W-78W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
SEE ABOVE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 10N
FROM N COLOMBIA TO N COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND FROM COSTA RICA TO S GUATEMALA. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
PRECIPITATION TO PERSIST OVER...THE E CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE
TROPICAL WAVE...OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DUE TO A FORMING
SURFACE LOW...OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE MONSOON
TROUGH...AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA S OF BELIZE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A GALE LOW IS TRAVERSING NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA.
SEE ABOVE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE
BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLANTIC FROM 20N-31N BETWEEN 70W-80W. A COLD
FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N38W TO 27N43W TO
24N50W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES W TO 22N60W 24N66W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTS. ALSO OF
NOTE...A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLAND NEAR
18N22W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC
BETWEEN 70W-75W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net