[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 072033
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  55
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
500 PM AST FRI OCT 07 2011

THE APPEARANCE OF PHILIPPE HAS DETERIORATED SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE
DAY...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW COMPLETELY EXPOSED.
PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW SHEARED TO THE EAST
AND NORTH OF THE CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
SAB HAVE DECREASED. ADDITIONALLY...A NOAA DRIFTER BUOY 41558
RECENTLY PASSED VERY NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE AND REPORTED A
SURFACE PRESSURE OF 989 MB...WHICH ALSO SUGGESTS THAT WEAKENING IS
OCCURRING. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED
TO 60 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED BASED ON THE
RECENT RAPID DECLINE OF PHILIPPE. HOWEVER THE GENERAL REASONING FOR
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED...AND WEAKENING IS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO A HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH SHEAR AND DECREASING SSTS. THE STORM IS
EXPECTED TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN A DAY OR TWO AS IT
CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

PHILIPPE HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY...AND THE ESTIMATED
FORWARD MOTION IS 070/11 KT.  DESPITE THE SLOWING...AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS STILL EXPECTED AS
THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.  THE REMNANTS OF
PHILIPPE ARE FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGE HIGH-LATITUDE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.  THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII
FOR THE EXTRATROPICAL PHASE OF THIS SYSTEM FOLLOW GUIDANCE PROVIDED
BY THE NCEP OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/2100Z 30.1N  54.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 31.5N  51.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  08/1800Z 35.0N  47.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  09/0600Z 39.0N  44.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  09/1800Z 42.5N  41.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  10/1800Z 49.5N  35.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  11/1800Z 58.0N  30.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  12/1800Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY


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