[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 09N14W 03N28W 01N37W 04N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 08N BETWEEN 40W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED
OVER THE SE GULF CENTERED NEAR 24N83W WITH AXIS ALONG 82W
STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA.
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ADVECTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD E OF
82W WHILE WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...THE NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED
OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 18N102W IS PROVIDING MOST OF THE GULF
WITH MODERATELY DRY N-NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC
SETUP IS PROMOTING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY
CLOUDLESS SKIES THIS EVENING W OF 82W. CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE
COAST OF WESTERN CUBA. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY E-SE WINDS UP TO 20 KT
ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING AND THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE W ATLC ALONG 28N/29N. THE LAST FEW
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER
HAZY SKY AS SMOKE FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO WILDFIRES CONTINUES TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF W OF 92W. PERIODS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
ACROSS WESTERN CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH A BASE OVER
HONDURAS. VERY DRY AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE W OF 84W AND AS A RESULT CLEAR SKIES
AND FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING. EAST OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HOWEVER...ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES
ADVECTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
70W-84W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA
NEAR 11N75W TO 15N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 71W-82W. MORE
ENHANCED CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
CUBA...HISPANIOLA AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS EVENING WHICH
COINCIDES WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. ELSEWHERE...THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND LESSER ANTILLES ARE EXPERIENCING FAIR CONDITIONS
UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION THIS EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 24N83W...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS IS NOTED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS MUCH OF THE W ATLC THIS EVENING. A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CUBA AND HISPANIOLA WHICH CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND AREAS WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF
CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS
ALONG 70W CONTINUE TO SUPPORTS A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
33N73W. FARTHER EAST...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N54W THAT SUPPORTS A COMPLEX
AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...ANALYZED AS 1009 MB...CENTERED
NEAR 28N55W. FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
CONTINUES TO FADE THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT TRANSITIONS TO
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER.
STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE PAIRED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ALOFT ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 19N-31N BETWEEN
39W-53W. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED IN THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST QUADRANTS OF THE LOW. THE REMAINDER OF THE
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 41N25W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


WWWW
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net