[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231758
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N13W 3N30W 5N40W 6N54W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN
14W-19W...FROM 5N-6N BETWEEN 24W-26W...FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN
41W-48W...AND FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 50W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER
FLORIDA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W GULF W OF 86W ANCHORED
IN THE E PACIFIC REGION W OF ACAPULCO. SOMEWHAT DRY STABLE AIR
ALOFT REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY.
DENSE SMOKE ALSO REMAINS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. A LESS DENSE
AREA OF SMOKE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE
E GULF. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE NE GULF GIVING
MOST OF THE GULF SE SURFACE FLOW AND LEAVING THE AREA UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE SE WINDS
ARE IN THE E GULF...WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS ARE IN THE
W GULF. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 80W SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-INLAND OVER CUBA BETWEEN 78W-83W. DRY
STABLE AIR ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN
LEAVING THE AREA W OF 83W UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN E OF 80W ANCHORED SE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. A
SURFACE TROUGH BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 14N78W TO
11N76W EMBEDDED WITHIN PERSISTENT DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE TROUGH AXIS...AND ALSO FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 71W-74W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OVER THE S COAST OF PUERTO
RICO. SMOKE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE
GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 18N W OF 86W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN AS A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS W OVER THE WRN TROPICAL ATLC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SMALL UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE AREA OF THE W ATLC W OF 61W. AN
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC N OF 22N BETWEEN
50W-61W SUPPORTING A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 31N56W WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING ALONG 30N54W 26N55W TO 24N58W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 160 NM OF THE COLD
FRONT. A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N49W 25N49W
20N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200
NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS SUPPORTED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WITHIN AN
UPPER RIDGE AXIS. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING E DEVELOPING A SECOND
LOW ALONG THE COLD FRONT NEAR 28N. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 11N E OF 45W ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH
NEAR THE AZORES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MONTALVO/WALTON





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