[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011755
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN MAY 01 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 05N10W 02N20W 01N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 42W THEN ANALYZED INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 01S48W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO
04N BETWEEN 15W-27W...AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 33W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF FROM
19N95W TO 30N90W AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SE CONUS. MOSTLY DRY
AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IS SE OF A LINE FROM 30N86W TO 23N98W
WITH ASSOCIATED WITH NW FLOW ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF BASIN
THIS MORNING. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC NEAR 32N79W TO THE NW GULF NEAR
28N94W WITH E TO SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KT. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNS OF SMOKE OVER THE W GULF MAINLY W
OF 90W WITH SURFACE AND SHIPS OBSERVATIONS INDICATING
SMOKE/HAZE/FOG FROM THE MANY FIRES OVER S MEXICO. SURFACE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH LATE MON. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TEXAS LATE MON AND EXTEND FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAK AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS LOCATED OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN WHICH IS PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
AND INCREASED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE BASIN E
OF 80W. AT THE SURFACE...FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADEWIND FLOW
CONTINUES AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE TRADES ARE BANKING MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN
120 NM OF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND S NICARAGUA. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 14N69W OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO/EASTERN
MONA PASSAGE TO 19N66W IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 64W-71W.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS ADVECTING FROM THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC WESTWARD ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS COVERING THE AREA FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 57W-62W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC INTO THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N64W THEN S-SW TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
22N79W AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE AREA NEAR 32N63W
BECOMING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT NEAR 28N68W TO 27N71W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAILING WEST TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA COAST NEAR 26N80W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NE
OF 25N61W BY MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLC THIS MORNING IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N45W. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NE OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 33N10W
THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT OVER NW AFRICA. W-NW WINDS IN THE
RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT ARE OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT E OF 18W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
SMM/PAW




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