[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011043
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAY 01 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS FROM 07N12W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 22W THEN
ANALYZED IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE ALONG 01S26W 02S35W AND INTO
NE BRAZIL NEAR 03S39W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04N BETWEEN 18W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF FROM
19N96W TO 30N93W AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SE CONUS. MOSTLY DRY
AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IS ASSOCIATED WITH NW FLOW ALOFT OVER
MUCH OF THE GULF BASIN THIS MORNING. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS
SUPPORTIVE OF A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC NEAR
32N78W TO THE NW GULF NEAR 27N95W WITH E TO SE WINDS IN THE
RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT THAT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER
THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AN
APPROACHING FRONT...CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...IS
FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE GULF COAST AS A COLD FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED WEST OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAK AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS LOCATED OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN WHICH IS PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
AND INCREASED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE BASIN S
OF 18N E OF 80W. AT THE SURFACE...MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY
TRADEWIND FLOW CONTINUES AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LOW-LEVEL FLOW...A SURFACE
TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 14N69W OVER CENTRAL PUERTO RICO TO 19N66W
IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 64W-72W. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ADVECTING FROM THE
TROPICAL NORTH ATLC WESTWARD ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
COVERING THE AREA FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 56W-64W. THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF CONVECTION NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC FROM 42N63W
INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N66W THEN S-SW TO CENTRAL CUBA
NEAR 22N79W AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC
NEAR BERMUDA THEN STRETCHING SW TO 29N70W AND CONTINUING AS A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO EAST OF THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR
26N76W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAILING WEST TO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA COAST NEAR 27N80W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT NE OF 28N63W BY LATE SUNDAY WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW
EXPECTED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 70W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC THIS MORNING IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A VERY BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 35N46W. MEANWHILE...A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO
SPIN NORTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 33N11W THAT SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG THE W AFRICA COAST FROM 32N09W TO
25N14W TO 21N21W. W-NW WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT ARE
OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT E OF 21W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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