[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311038
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N10W 3N21W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 32W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S
OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 34W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE NE GULF NEAR 28N86W ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD GIVING THE GULF WATERS MOSTLY SW FLOW ALOFT. THESE TWO
FEATURES AT 31/0900 UTC ARE SUPPORTING A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC JUST S OF
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO A DEEPENING 1004 MB LOW NEAR 29N84W
CONTINUING ALONG 25N91W TO 22N94W WHERE IT DISSIPATES NEAR THE
COAST OF S MEXICO AT THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. SCATTERED TO
HEAVY SHOWERS WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REGENERATED IN A
BAND WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 27N86W TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA
NEAR 29N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE
FRONT TO A LINE FROM VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA TO JUST S OF
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS WHERE SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR.
HOWEVER...PATCHES OF FOG ARE W OF THIS LINE N OF 28N TO INLAND
OVER LOUISIANA AND FAR E TEXAS. THE AREA E OF THE FRONT IS
CURRENTLY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. FRONT IS BEGINNING TO MOVE
AND WILL REACH FROM 28N83W TO 22N90W EARLY FRI THEN OUT OF GULF
LATE FRI. SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CLIP THE FAR NE GULF LATE FRI
MOVING E OF AREA FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL
GULF FRI THEN SHIFTS E OVER FLORIDA SAT WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW ACROSS GULF THROUGH MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE TROPICS COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERING ALL
BUT THE FAR S CARIBBEAN. MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF
18N BETWEEN 74W-79W WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. FRESH
TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN GULF OF HONDURAS LATER
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE N OF AREA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E. FRESH
TRADE WINDS PERSIST OVER E CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT. TRADE WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NE OF AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH THAT IS INLAND OVER THE E CONUS IS SUPPORTING AT
31/0900 UTC A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM LOW OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST THROUGH 32N76W TO JUST S OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
THEN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A 1004 MB LOW NEAR 29N84W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N-31N W OF
80W TO INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL
ATLC N OF 27N BETWEEN 33W-51W WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E ATLC W OF 30W. A
WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N42W SW TO
27N52W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 29N63W THEN BECOMES A WARM
FRONT TO OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N67W AND TO THE LOW
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE E
EXTENDING FROM 31N41W TO 27N46W. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE SW ATLC EXTENDING FROM NEAR 24N64W TO 19N67W
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 58W-70W. A NEAR
STATIONARY UPPER LOW IS IN THE FAR E ATLC NEAR 28N21W AND A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH OVER SPAIN WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N24W TO 25N39W. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR REMAINS OVER THE ATLC S OF 25N
LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH
FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. S TO SW SURFACE FLOW TO NEAR GALE
FORCE IS OFF N FLORIDA COAST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THROUGH FRI.
COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N74W TO FLORIDA KEYS EARLY FRI THEN
REACH FROM 30N65W TO SE BAHAMAS FRI NIGHT AS REINFORCING COLD
FRONT DIVES DOWN FROM THE NW. THESE FRONTS WILL MERGE AND SHIFT
E OF AREA EARLY SUN WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS AREA
THROUGH MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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