[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 310541
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 6N10W 3N21W 1N29W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 35W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 21W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES MOVING
TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE NE GULF NEAR 28N86W ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD GIVING THE GULF WATERS SW FLOW ALOFT.
THESE TWO FEATURES AT 31/0300 UTC ARE SUPPORTING A COMPLEX
FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1003 MB OFF
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH 32N77W TO OVER JACKSONVILLE
FLORIDA TO A 1006 MB LOW NEAR PANAMA CITY CONTINUING INTO THE
GULF ALONG 29N85W TO 27N87W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG
25N94W 22N96W TO THE COAST OF S MEXICO NEAR THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC. A SEPARATE STATIONARY REMAINS ALONG THE E SLOPE OF
THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N-28N E OF 86W TO INLAND OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE GULF COLD/STATIONARY FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA LATER THIS
MORNING BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE OVER THE SE GULF BY FRI MORNING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CLIP THE FAR NE GULF FRI MOVING E OF THE
AREA FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FRI
THEN SHIFTS E INTO THE ATLC WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS
THE GULF SAT THROUGH MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE TROPICS COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERING ALL
BUT THE FAR S CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN 19N-21N.
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 76-79W WHERE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS
DIMINISH IN GULF OF HONDURAS LATER TODAY AS SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE W ATLC WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E. FRESH TRADE WINDS PERSIST OVER
E CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT. TRADE WINDS INCREASE ACROSS CARIBBEAN
SUN AND MON AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE W ATLC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH THAT IS INLAND OVER THE E CONUS IS SUPPORTING AT
31/0300 UTC A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 1003 MB LOW ALONG THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH 32N77W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
ACROSS NE FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 27N77W TO 29N73W
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA W OF
71W TO INLAND OVER THE CONUS E COAST. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE
CENTRAL ATLC N OF 27N BETWEEN 37W-53W WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E ATLC W OF
30W. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N44W
SW TO 28N58W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 27N68W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM 31N41W ALONG 28N45W TO 27N50W.
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE SW ATLC EXTENDING FROM NEAR 23N64W ALONG
21N66W TO THE MONA PASSAGE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM
19N-24N BETWEEN 62W-71W. THE FAR E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A NEAR
STATIONARY UPPER LOW NEAR 28N22W AND A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY
A 1029 MB HIGH OVER PORTUGAL WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH
32N25W ALONG 26N38W TO 25N56W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY STABLE AIR REMAINS OVER THE ATLC S OF 24N LIMITING SHOWER
ACTIVITY LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER
AGAIN TONIGHT. STRONG AND GUSTY S TO SW SURFACE FLOW TO NEAR
GALE FORCE IS OFF N FLORIDA COAST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THROUGH
TODAY. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE W ATLC TO FLORIDA KEYS FRI
MORNING THEN STALL FROM JUST E OF BERMUDA TO SE BAHAMAS FRI
NIGHT AS REINFORCING COLD FRONT DIVES DOWN FROM THE NW. BOTH
FRONTS WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BY SUN MORNING WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN ACROSS AREA THROUGH MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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