[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAR 30 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N11W 5N17W 2N24W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 31W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-7N
BETWEEN 6W-22W AND TO THE COAST OF SW AFRICA AND FROM 2N TO S OF
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 41W-50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 24W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA
COASTAL BORDER TO OVER ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUPPORTING AT 30/0900 UTC A 1008 MB LOW IS JUST INLAND OVER S
LOUISIANA NEAR VERMILION BAY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING E INTO
THE GULF NEAR 30N89W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR THE
ALABAMA BORDER TO NEAR TALLAHASSEE. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N TO OVER THE SE
CONUS BETWEEN PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND THE TEXAS BORDER INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF W GEORGIA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE NW GULF
OVER W LOUISIANA NEAR LAKE CHARLES ALONG 28N95W TO INLAND OVER S
TEXAS BETWEEN CORPUS CHRISTI AND BROWNSVILLE TO ALONG THE E
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO. OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER
TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH...DENOTED BY A WIND SHIFT...IS E OF THE
FRONT EXTENDING FORM 29N93W TO 25N97W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
IS UNDER A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA
TO THE N GULF COAST ALONG 84W. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS
MAINTAINING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHES OF FOG MAINLY N OF 23N W OF
90W LEAVING ONLY THE S GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS
MORNING. WARM FRONT IS MOVING N OF THE AREA AND WILL BE
COMPLETELY INLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS NEW COLD FRONT
WILL REACH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO JUST N OF THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE BY EARLY THU THEN EXIT THE GULF EARLY FRI WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN LATE FRI THROUGH SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA COVERS THE W
CARIBBEAN WHILE A SECOND BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE
TROPICS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE ALL BUT THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 13N.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM
15N65W ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO NEAR 22N63W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 62W-65W INCLUDING THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND E PUERTO RICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. FRESH/STRONG
TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN GULF OF HONDURAS TODAY THROUGH THU
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WEAKENS WHILE SHIFTING E.
FRESH TRADE WINDS PERSIST OVER E CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN. TRADE
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE SAT AND SUN AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS JUST N OF AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 55W WHILE A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC W OF 40W. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N55W SW TO 28N66W WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 30N53W ALONG 27N63W TO NEAR 26N71W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 27N. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW ATLC EXTENDING FROM NEAR
22N63W ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN TO 15N65W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 20N TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND E PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 62W-65W. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY AN
UPPER TROUGH WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 29N23W AND A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH IN THE NE ATLC BETWEEN THE MADEIRA
ISLANDS AND THE AZORES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH
32N25W ALONG 26N39W TO A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 24N59W. MODERATE/
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR REMAINS OVER THE ATLC S OF
25N LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING. STRONG AND GUSTY S TO SW
SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT TO NEAR GALE FORCE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AS IT
MOVES OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST THU NIGHT AND REACH THE CENTRAL
ATLC TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA EARLY FRI THEN FROM BERMUDA TO SE
BAHAMAS EARLY SAT BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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