[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Wed Mar 30 01:00:00 CDT 2011


AXNT20 KNHC 300559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAR 30 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N12W 4N18W 2N25W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 30W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF 6.5N
E OF 18W TO INLAND OVER LIBERIA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
32W-47W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 5W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR HOUSTON TEXAS TO OVER
THE LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY GENERATING SCATTERED TO
HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SE CONUS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI...
LOUISIANA AND WITHIN 60/75 NM ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN PANAMA
CITY FLORIDA AND SE LOUISIANA. AT 30/0300 UTC A 1010 MB LOW IS
ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR VERMILION BAY WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING E OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA THEN SE TO 28N87W
CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR FORT MYERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 26N-28N E OF 88W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF IS UNDER A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL
AMERICA TO THE N GULF COAST ALONG 87W. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS
MAINTAINING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHES OF FOG MAINLY N OF 23N W OF
89W LEAVING ONLY THE S GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY WHILE THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFF TEXAS COAST REACHING THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO JUST N OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY EARLY THU THEN
EXIT THE GULF EARLY FRI WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN LATE FRI
THROUGH SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA COVERS THE W
CARIBBEAN WHILE A SECOND BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE
TROPICS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE ALL BUT THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 13N.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM
13N64W ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO NEAR 21N62W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS BETWEEN GUADELOUPE AND PUERTO
RICO AND ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 15N BETWEEN 62W-65W. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA HAVE MOVED W
COVERING PORTIONS OF HAITI FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 72W-75W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN
TONIGHT. FRESH/STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN GULF OF
HONDURAS TODAY THROUGH THU AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC
WEAKENS WHILE SHIFTING E. FRESH TRADE WINDS PERSIST OVER E
CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN. TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN LATE SAT AND SUN AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS JUST N OF
AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 60W WHILE A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC W OF 45W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS N OF THE REGION GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF A LINE FROM 28N57W TO BEYOND 32N44W. AT
30/0300 UTC A STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDS ACROSS S FLORIDA FROM FORT MYERS TO FORT LAUDERDALE INTO
THE W ATLC TO NEAR 26N74W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
30N57W TO NEAR 27N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW
ATLC FROM NEAR 21N62W ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN TO 13N64W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 20N TO
OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS BETWEEN 62W-65W. THE E ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY AN UPPER TROUGH WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 29N23W AND A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH IN THE NE ATLC BETWEEN
THE MADEIRA ISLANDS AND THE AZORES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N26W ALONG 24N45W TO 25N60W. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR REMAINS OVER THE ATLC S OF 25N
LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH
FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



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