[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291048
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N12W 4N18W 1N29W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 38W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 10W-19W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 22W-45W AND WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 27W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOSTLY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
FROM SAVANNAH GEORGIA TO 26N83W WITH NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. AT 29/0900 UTC A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
BETWEEN MELBOURNE TO TAMPA THEN TO 28N84W BECOMING STATIONARY TO
28N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN IN THE SE GULF FROM 25N-26N E OF 84W ACROSS THE S
FLORIDA. THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS MAINTAINING LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHES OF FOG MAINLY N OF 24N W OF 85W LEAVING ONLY THE FAR SW
GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE E GULF WILL DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT. COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE OFF TEXAS COAST EARLY WED AND EXTEND FROM NW FLORIDA
TO SE TEXAS LATE WED MORNING WHERE IT STALLS LATE THU. SECOND
STRONGER COLD FRONT REACH FROM NW FLORIDA TO NW YUCATAN COAST
FRI MORNING MOVING INTO THE W ATLC LATE FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE TROPICS COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
WITH NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
STABLE AIR COVERS THE ALL BUT THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 13N.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS
MAINLY S OF 13N BETWEEN 76W-84W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST
THE LESSER ANTILLES BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE ISLANDS
MAINLY S OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL CLEAR
THE ISLANDS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS
MORNING. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
E AND WEAKEN THROUGH THU. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS PERSIST
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT AT 29/0900 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH
32N67W TO A WEAK 1014 MB LOW OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N79W
WHERE A COLD FRONT CONTINUES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS
FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR MELBOURNE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 225 NM S OF THE COLD
FRONT W OF 67W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY NEAR
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027
MB HIGH IN THE NE ATLC NEAR 33N25W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
ALONG 26N45W 25N64W TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 23N72W ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE BUT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. MODERATE/
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVER THE ATLC S OF 25N
LIMITING MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE EXCEPTION IS A SURFACE TROUGH
JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM 17N60W E OF
BARBADOS TO OVER TOBAGO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICS COVERS THE TROPICAL
ATLC AND CARIBBEAN. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net