[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290533
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N12W 4N18W 1N27W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 37W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 23W-41W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF
SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 10W-17W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 41W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO
26N86W WITH NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. AT 29/0300 UTC A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO A 1015 MB LOW
NEAR 30N82W CONTINUING ALONG THE PANHANDLE FROM THE BIG BEND
AREA TO JUST S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA THEN SW ALONG 28N86W TO
27N90W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO NEAR 27N95W. SCATTERED TO HEAVY
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N-27N E OF 87W TO
OVER S FLORIDA INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N-29N E OF 84W ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS MAINTAINING
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHES OF FOG MAINLY N OF 24N W OF 89W LEAVING
THE SW GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE STATIONARY
FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH TUE. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF
THE TEXAS COAST WED EXTENDING FROM NW FLORIDA TO NEAR
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS THU MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL OUT BY LATE
THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE TROPICS COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
WITH NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
STABLE AIR COVERS THE ALL BUT THE EXTREME S CARIBBEAN. LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY S OF 12N
BETWEEN 76W-84W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE ISLANDS MAINLY S OF
GUADELOUPE. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT E AND WEAKEN THROUGH THU. FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND NW CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT AT 29/0300 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC
THROUGH 32N74W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR SAINT
AUGUSTINE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 24N
TO THE FRONT W OF 74W ACROSS THE FLORIA PENINSULA. THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH IN THE E ATLC NEAR
32N27W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 26N49W TO 26N71W BEFORE
WEAKENING OVER THE BAHAMAS. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
STABLE AIR COVER THE ATLC S OF 25N LIMITING MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THE EXCEPTION IS A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING THE
LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM 18N58W TO 11N59W WITHIN ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS INCLUDING
THE LESSER ANTILLES. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICS
COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO NE FLORIDA LATE TODAY AND IN
THE CENTRAL ATLC BY TUE NIGHT. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASE
WED AND WED NIGHT AHEAD OF STRONGER COLD FRONT WHICH REACH THE W
ATLC THU NIGHT THEN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BY LATE SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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