[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 07N12W 02N25W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 34W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 01S46W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 18W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE NW GULF
WATERS AND SUPPORTS A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING
W-SW FROM THE LOW ALONG 29N90W TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 27N97W.
WHILE A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG THE
COLD FRONT...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
INDICATE THAT A MARGINALLY COOLER AND RELATIVELY DRIER AIRMASS
IS LOCATED NW OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MOST INSTABILITY AND
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS FOCUSED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED
FROM APALACHICOLA FLORIDA NEAR 30N85W TO 27N91W. MOSAIC DOPPLER
RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED TSTMS OCCURRING OVER THE AREA FROM 27N-31N EAST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE LOW
ALONG 30N FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE GULF THROUGH TUESDAY WITH S-SE
RETURN FLOW RE-ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC NEAR 06N52W NW OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND HISPANIOLA TO 20N72W. EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...THE
REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
VERY WEAK BROAD-SCALE TROUGHING WHICH IS LARGELY ACCOMPANIED BY
DRY AIR ALOFT. GIVEN THE OVERALL STABILITY OF THE ATMOSPHERE
ALOFT...AT THE SURFACE...FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS PERSIST WITH
VERY FEW AREAS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
APPROACH OF A SWIFT MOVING SURFACE TROUGH FROM 10N-16N ALONG 57W
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PROVIDING AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS AS WELL AS OVER MANY OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ISLANDS N OF
13N AND N OF 16N BETWEEN 63W-66W...WHICH INCLUDES THE US/UK
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WESTERN NORTH ATLC DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AND EXTENDS A COLD FRONT FROM BERMUDA NEAR 32N65W TO 31N70W THEN
BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 30N81W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC
WATERS N OF 26N W OF A LINE FROM 32N71W TO 26N79W. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS LOCATING ALONG 28N/29N BETWEEN 65W-80W BY EARLY
TUESDAY. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN EXPANSIVE AND BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N29W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE NOTED N OF 05N E OF 70W. HOWEVER...A PAIR OF
SURFACE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED NORTH OF HISPANIOLA
ANALYZED FROM 20N72W TO 26N67W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. THE OTHER SURFACE
TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 10N-16N ALONG 57W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS
AND OVER AN AREA NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN
54W-65W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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