[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 281051
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N11W 4N18W 1N29W 3N41W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR AND INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR W OF
45W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 22W-32W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
1W-6W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING AN
AXIS NW THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE MISSISSIPPI/
LOUISIANA BORDER. AT 28/0900 UTC A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM SAINT AUGUSTINE TO N OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
TO A 1009 MB NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA BORDER WITH A COLD
FRONT CONTINUING ACROSS SE LOUISIANA ALONG 29N92W IN THE NW GULF
TO INLAND OVER TEXAS JUST S OF CORPUS CHRISTI BEFORE EXTENDING W
ACROSS S TEXAS/MEXICO TO A 1005 MB LOW S OF DEL RIO. SCATTERED/
HEAVY SHOWERS AND NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE W COAST FROM FORT
MYERS TO CEDAR KEY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE NE GULF FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 83W-89W. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE NW GULF IS MAINTAINING LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHES OF FOG MAINLY N OF 24N W OF 90W LEAVING THE SE GULF
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THIS HOWEVER WILL CHANGE
AS THE FRONT DIPS FURTHER S OVER THE E GULF WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE S FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE
COLD FRONT WILL SINK S TO REACH FROM NW FLORIDA TO NW YUCATAN
PENINSULA TONIGHT AND E OF THE GULF BY TUE. SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE OFF TEXAS COAST EARLY WED AND EXTEND FROM MOBILE
ALABAMA TO TAMPICO MEXICO BY LATE WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN S OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS EXTENDING AN AXIS NW THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND COVERING THE CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. A SECOND
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE TROPICS COVERS THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN W OF 71W AND N OF 14N E OF 71W. REMNANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS S OF 16N BETWEEN 78W-83W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E AND WEAKEN
THROUGH THU. PERSISTENT FRESH TO STRONG SE BREEZE WILL REMAIN
OVER NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT AT 28/0900 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH
32N68W ALONG 30N78W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR SAINT
AUGUSTINE WITH SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS AND NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OFF THE E
COAST OF FLORIDA BETWEEN WEST PALM BEACH AND JUST S OF
JACKSONVILLE. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY NEAR
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026
MB HIGH IN THE E ATLC NEAR 31N29W WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
ALONG 25N52W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W BEFORE WEAKENING NEAR
THE FLORIDA COAST. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
COVER THE ATLC S OF 25N LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW ATLC EXTENDING FROM 26N68W ACROSS
THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO 20N72W BUT DUE THE DRY STABLE AIR...NO
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE
TROPICS COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC AND THE E CARIBBEAN. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM 14N53W TO 9N55W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM
E OF THE TROUGH AXIS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN
WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 25N
WILL SHIFT E AS THE COLD FRONT OVER THE FAR NW ATLC WILL DRIFT S
TODAY EXTENDING FROM E OF BERMUDA TO WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
EARLY TUE THEN STALLING LATE TUE. FRONT WILL THEN LIFT N AS WARM
FRONT WED AND THU AS NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES OFF GEORGIA COAST
LATE FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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