[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 07N12W 02N21W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 29W THEN ALONG 02S37W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 02S45W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 11W-17W...
AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 19W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
FAIRLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE
GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS IS PROVIDING FOR RATHER BENIGN
CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WITH A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT ACTIVE
WEATHER. A VERY WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AND NE GULF FROM THE ORLANDO AREA
WESTWARD TO 28N86W THEN INLAND ACROSS COASTAL LOUISIANA. VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE IS NOTED ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER RECENT SHIP
AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND A RESULTANT
DRIER AIRMASS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH IS PROVIDING FOR VERY
CLEAR SKIES. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF SOUTH OF THIS FRONT IS
LOCATED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY
A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE SE GULF NEAR 24N83W. S-SE WINDS
IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE MAINLY W OF 90W WITH THIS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
AS THE NEXT WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE EASTERN TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA GULF COAST...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATES ALONG 30N
AND THE IMMEDIATE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE BY MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC AND
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS FROM 04N45W W-NW TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
NEAR 15N78W. SW FLOW ALOFT UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
STABLE AIR COVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS AFTERNOON. FRESH
TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WITH AREAS OF ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17N68W TO 13N82W...AND FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN
84W-88W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WESTERN ATLC W OF 50W...LEADING TO A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC. WHILE A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA SE OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DIPS INTO THE
AREA NEAR 32N58W AND TRAILS SW TO 30N66W BECOMING STATIONARY
INTO A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT EAST OF THE LOW CENTER.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRAILS W-SW FROM THE LOW TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL NEAR 28N81W. THE FRONT REMAINS
RELATIVELY INACTIVE WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A DRIER AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT REMAINING N OF 28N W OF 73W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS IS ALONG 23N WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS INDICATED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER EAST...EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLC...A WEAK 1019
MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N34W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED
SOUTHWARD TO 20N34W THEN CONTINUING AS A WEAK SHEAR LINE TO
15N42W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARIES AND WITHIN 60 NM NW OF A LINE FROM THE LOW
CENTER TO 28N30W. THE MAIN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N39W WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING W-SW TO 23N50W THEN WESTWARD ALONG 23N AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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