[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N10W 3N19W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 28W CONTINUING SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER E
BRAZIL. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 9W-20W AND FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 32W-36W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 20W-31W FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 3N W OF 36W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE E GULF IS UNDER NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHILE THE W
GULF IS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER S/CENTRAL MEXICO WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OFF THE TEXAS COAST TO OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVER
MOST OF THE GULF WATERS WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO IS
DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS MEXICO/S TEXAS TO OVER
THE FAR NW GULF. AS OF 25/0900 UTC A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO S OF CEDAR
KEY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO 29N84W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA JUST S OF NEW ORLEANS. THIS
FRONT REMAINS VOID OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 23N90W TO OVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE TO NEAR
18N91W. THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE
SE GULF WITH A 1016 MB HIGH ALONG THE N/CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA.
THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS GIVING THE W GULF SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
NW GULF MAINLY N OF 25N W OF 91W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
PLAIN STATES COMBINING WITH STRENGTHENING RIDGE ACROSS SE GULF
IS RESULTING IN INCREASING S RETURN FLOW OVER GULF WATERS SAT
AND SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE TROPICS COVERS MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN GIVING THE AREA SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY STABLE AIR COVER ALL BUT THE EXTREME SE CARIBBEAN. FRESH
TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN. THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COMBINED WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ARE
DEVELOPING PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
MAINLY S OF 16N E OF 81W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. FRESH
EASTERLY TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATER TODAY THROUGH SAT
AS THE W ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S. TRADE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
ON SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC N OF 30N W OF 57W SUPPORTING
A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ALONG 32N60W 31N67W TO A 1008 MB LOW
NEAR 32N73W AND AT 25/0900 UTC A WEAKER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW SW ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE FRONT E OF
THE 1008 MB LOW. A WEAKENING 1016 MB LOW IS ALONG THE N/CENTRAL
COAST OF CUBA AT 25/0900 UTC. IN THE E ATLC IS A 1018 MB LOW
NEAR NEAR 25N33W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NE TO 27N28W
AND A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 21N34W. BROAD UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
WATERS WITH A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATING THE ATLC ANCHORED
BY A PAIR OF 1021 MB HIGHS NEAR 31N24W AND 26N41W. THIS SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS W TO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO S OF THE W ATLC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND HAS A WEAKNESS IN THE E ATLC IN THE VICINITY OF THE
LOW/SURFACE TROUGHS BUT IS GIVING THE ATLC MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
AGAIN THIS MORNING. W ATLC FRONT WILL SHIFT SE THROUGH SAT
BEFORE DISSIPATING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN THROUGH MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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