[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241143
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAR 24 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N12W EQ25W 2S43W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS
FROM 20W TO 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
GULF FORCING LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY WESTERLY NORTH OF 26N AND
EASTERLY SOUTH OF 26N...THIS EVENING. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS
PRESENT AND EVEN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS SPARSE WITH THE
SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS PREVAILING. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED
OVER AND NEAR THE YUCATAN OF MEXICO...THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH IT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING WITH A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE. DURING THE
NEXT DAY...THE RIDGING WEAKENS EVEN FURTHER AND NEARLY THE
ENTIRE GULF WILL HAVE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM TEXAS TO TENNESSEE MAY BRIEFLY REACH
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY...BUT WITH NO UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...THE WINDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO PICK UP NOR
WILL THERE BE MUCH COOL AIR ADVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MODEST RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LIES JUST NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. THIS IS PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT IS
RESULTING IN 15-25 KT TRADEWIND EASTERLIES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.
SURFACE WINDS JUST NORTH OF COLUMBIA ARE SOMEWHAT ENHANCED BY
THE LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY...AS IS TYPICALLY SEEN. NO DEEP CONVECTION
IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...THOUGH THERE LIKELY
ARE SOME LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS OCCURRING ALONG THE EASTWARD FACING
SLOPES OF CENTRAL AMERICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...STRONGLY
SUBSIDENT ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES. DURING THE NEXT DAY...LITTLE TO
NO CHANGE IS EXPECTED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 24N46W OVER THE SUBTROPICAL
NORTH ATLANTIC. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THIS HIGH BOTH
WESTWARD TO THE BAHAMAS AND EASTWARD TO ANOTHER HIGH OF 1019 MB
CENTERED AT 33N30W. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN BORDER EXTENDING FROM 32N61W TO 29N55W TO 32N45W. THE
EARLIER GALE FORCE SURFACE WINDS NORTH OF 30N WITHIN A COUPLE
HUNDRED MILES E OF THE FRONT HAVE DIMINISHED TO 25 TO 30 KT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXIST WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. A 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N34W WITH STATIONARY
FRONTS EXTENDING FROM THE LOW SOUTH TO 20N38W AND NORTHEAST TO
32N23W. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXIST WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES. SURFACE WINDS...ASIDE FROM THE VICINITY OF THE COLD
FRONT...ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 KT. ONE EXCEPTION IS THE SW
FLOW WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED MILES E OF NE FLORIDA WITH WINDS UP TO
25 KT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N36W TO
23N51W TO 18N60W. A SUBTROPICAL JET SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS
ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOCATED AT 8N32W ARE ADVECTING
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS FROM DEEP CONVECTION OVER
SOUTH AMERICA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SUBTROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC.
DURING THE NEXT DAY...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD...BUT
NOT MUCH SOUTHWARD...AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. LIKEWISE THE LOW AND
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD
GRADUALLY FADE AS WELL.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LANDSEA




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net