[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240537
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAR 24 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N13W 2N30W EQ50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS
FROM 20W TO 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
GULF FORCING LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY WESTERLY NORTH OF 26N AND
EASTERLY SOUTH OF 26N...THIS EVENING.  NO DEEP CONVECTION IS
PRESENT AND EVEN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS SPARSE WITH THE
SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS PREVAILING.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL
WESTERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING WITH A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NORTH
OF THE AREA NEAR THE CAROLINAS.  DURING THE NEXT DAY...THE
RIDGING WEAKENS EVEN FURTHER AND NEARLY THE ENTIRE GULF WILL
HAVE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS.  A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM
TEXAS TO TENNESSEE MAY BRIEFLY REACH THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
ON THURSDAY...BUT WITH NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THE WINDS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED TO PICK UP NOR WILL THERE BE MUCH COOL AIR
ADVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MODEST 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 25N65W A COUPLE HUNDRED
MILES NORTH OF PUERTO RICO.  THIS IS PRODUCING A MODERATE
PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT IS RESULTING IN 15-25 KT TRADEWIND
EASTERLIES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.  SURFACE WINDS JUST NORTH OF
COLUMBIA ARE SOMEWHAT ENHANCED BY THE LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY...AS IS
TYPICALLY SEEN.  NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN...THOUGH THERE LIKELY ARE SOME LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS
OCCURRING ALONG THE EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...STRONGLY SUBSIDENT ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES.
DURING THE NEXT DAY...LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IS EXPECTED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MODEST 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 25N65W A COUPLE HUNDRED
MILES NORTH OF PUERTO RICO.  A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THIS
HIGH EASTWARD TO ANOTHER HIGH OF 1022 MB CENTERED AT 32N32W.  A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN BORDER
EXTENDING FROM 32N65W TO 29N57W TO 32N47W.  NORTH OF 30N WITHIN
A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES E OF THE FRONT...SW WINDS UP TO GALE
FORCE ARE OCCURRING.  SCATTERED SHOWERS EXIST WITHIN ABOUT 120
NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  A 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
25N35W WITH STATIONARY FRONTS EXTENDING FROM THE LOW SOUTH TO
19N38W AND NORTHEAST TO 32N24W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS EXIST WITHIN
120 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.  SURFACE WINDS...ASIDE FROM
THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT...ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 KT.
ONE EXCEPTION IS THE SW FLOW WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED MILES E OF NE
FLORIDA WITH WINDS UP TO 25 KT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 32N36W TO 23N51W TO 18N60W.  A SUBTROPICAL JET
SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOCATED
AT 8N32W ARE ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS FROM
DEEP CONVECTION OVER SOUTH AMERICA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
SUBTROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC.  DURING THE NEXT DAY...THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD...BUT NOT MUCH SOUTHWARD...AND SLOWLY
WEAKEN.  LIKEWISE THE LOW AND STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD GRADUALLY FADE AS WELL.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LANDSEA




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