[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W ALONG
5N15W EQ24W DEPICTING SWLY/WLY FLOW CONVERGENCE. E OF 24W...THE
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 35W CONTINUING ALONG
2N43W 1N51W DEPICTING CONVENTIONAL ITCZ FLOW OF NELY/SELY WIND
CONVERGENCE. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 11W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 16W-19W...FROM 2S-1N BETWEEN 29W-34W...AND
FROM 2N-3N BETWEEN 39W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF OF MEXICO AROUND
A 1039 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR MONTREAL WITH AXIS EXTENDING DOWN
THE ERN UNITED STATES AND ACROSS THE GULF FROM NE FLORIDA TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO
WITH AXIS EXTENDING NE ACROSS THE ENTIRE ERN CONUS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ARE ACROSS THE BASIN
SUPPORTING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH CLEAR
SKIES THROUGHOUT BESIDES A FEW PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE NE GULF BECOMING ELY
ACROSS THE SE GULF UP TO 15 KTS. WINDS ARE MAINLY SE OVER THE
WRN GULF APPROACHING 20 KTS NEAR THE SE TEXAS COASTLINE. A WEAK
AND DISSIPATING STATIONARY BOUNDARY CLIPS THE FAR NE CORNER OF
FLORIDA CAUSING NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES
MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS
WHICH IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION AND MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS ACROSS TEH BASIN. HOWEVER...A FEW TRADEWIND SHOWERS
ARE NOTED IN THE NELY FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWIND FLOW ESPECIALLY
EVIDENT ACROSS PUERTO RICO IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE NRN WINDWARD ISLANDS AS
WELL AS INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS. SOME OF THE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ARE DUE TO WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE
ALONG A SHEAR LINE EXTENDING FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 13N60W
10N64W. THE SURFACE WINDS ALSO GAIN A CYCLONIC NATURE AROUND THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH WINDS REACHING 25 KT CAUSING DAMMING
AGAINST THE COSTA RICA AND PANAMA COASTS SUPPORTING OVERCAST
SKIES AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS. ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WHILE A DRY UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO HONDURAS.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE W ATLC ALONG 32N61W
29N71W 29N78 BECOMING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NE
FLORIDA. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH
BETWEEN 45W-75W. THE FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH A STRONG SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS AND W ATLC CENTERED NEAR MONTREAL.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 100 NM BEHIND THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER
OF THE W ATLC IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER DUE TO DRY AIR
ALOFT. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
ALONG 45W SUPPORTING A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 28N49W. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER EWD TO 28N43W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS SWD TO NEAR 22N51W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS ALONG 22N49W TO 16N54W CONTINUING AS A SHEAR AXIS TO THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120
NM N OF THE WARM FRONT...300 NM E OF THE TROUGH CONNECTED TO THE
LOW CENTER...AND 150 NM E OF THE SECOND SURFACE TROUGH. SURFACE
RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE FAR E ATLC AROUND A 1020 MB
HIGH NEAR 26N25W MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS. ALOFT...MAINLY
ZONAL WLY FLOW IS S OF 25N AROUND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 4N42W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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