[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201140
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 02N21W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 25W THEN
ALONG 01S32W TO 01S41 THEN INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 01S46W. EAST OF
21W...A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER W AFRICA NEAR
12N16W WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS CIRCULATION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 06W-16W. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 01-03N BETWEEN 21W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
MEXICO NEAR 19N99W THAT EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS NE ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF AND PORTIONS OF THE SE CONUS. MOSTLY SUBSIDENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH
IS SUPPORTIVE OF A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE
GULF NEAR 28N86W. SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE ACROSS THE GULF
CURRENTLY AND THIS WIND REGIME IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH REMAINS STATIONARY WITH AXIS ALONG 28N.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
WITH AREAS OF PATCHY TO DENSE FOG POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
GULF COAST WATERS...LIFTING BY LATE MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC WITH
ASSOCIATED DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. THIS OVERALL PATTERN IS
LIMITING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION...WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS
OF TRADEWIND SHOWERS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. OF
NOTE...AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINS FOCUSED IN THE
VICINITY OF A SHEAR LINE ANALYZED FROM 15N55W TO 11N64W ACROSS
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE ACTIVITY COVERS THE AREA FROM 11N-17N
BETWEEN 56W-65W. ANOTHER AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IS OCCURRING
IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS FROM 15N-18N
BETWEEN 82W-91W...INCLUDING INTERIOR PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...
BELIZE...AND GUATEMALA. ALSO...LOW-LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE OF
THE TRADES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS
S OF 11N W OF 80W ALONG THE COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA COAST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND NE
GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS EASTWARD OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS
MAINTAINING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING W OF 58W. A
WEAK COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N65W
NEAR BERMUDA TO 30N78W BECOMING STATIONARY TO JACKSONVILLE
FLORIDA NEAR 30N81W. VERY LITTLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...HOWEVER...POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM NORTH OF AND 120 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE
FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO DRIFT S-SE. AN AREA OF STRONGER NE
WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT RESIDES NORTH OF THE FRONT AS
DEPICTED BY AN EARLIER 20/0144 UTC ASCAT PASS. FARTHER EAST...AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALONG 48W AND SUPPORTS A 1009 MB
LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N49W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S-SW FROM THE
LOW ALONG 20N51W TO 16N55W BECOMING A SHEAR LINE TO THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 13N61W. A WARM FRONT ALSO EXTENDS EAST FROM THE LOW
TO 27N44W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE GENERATED NEAR THE BOUNDARIES
ALONG WITH AMPLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM 17N-30N BETWEEN 40W-51W. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS FROM
20/0000 UTC DEPICTED THE CIRCULATION OF THE LOW WITH STRONG E TO
SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 KT COVERING A LARGE AREA
WITHIN 360 NM OF THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED ON A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N40W SUPPORTING
OVERALL FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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