[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Fri Mar 11 17:38:37 CST 2011


AXNT20 KNHC 112338
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2300 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W ALONG 2N17W
CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 25W CONTINUING ALONG 2S34W 5S44W. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN
14W-17W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 1S-1N BETWEEN 20W-23W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-1N BETWEEN
26W-32W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4S-1S BETWEEN
32W-36W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF
1N BETWEEN 36W-50W INTO INLAND BRAZIL.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES EXTREMELY DRY AIR AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO CENTERED OVER SRN
FLORIDA DUE TO CONVERGENCE AROUND THE WRN BASE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE ERN SEABOARD AND FAR WRN
ATLC. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT OVER THE FAR WRN
GULF SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE BASIN AROUND A 1027
MB HIGH CENTERED S OF NEW ORLEANS. CLEAR SKIES ARE ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE BASIN BESIDES SOME AREAS OF LOW LEVEL
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE SRN GULF. ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE
FLOW OF 10-15 KTS IS AROUND THE RIDGE WITH WINDS UP OF 15-20 KTS
ACROSS THE ERN GULF. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFT EWD OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ALLOWING SE RETURN FLOW TO BUILD ACROSS THE
WRN GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYER
TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN SEABOARD AND WRN ATLC CONTINUES TO IMPACT
THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE FRONT LIES FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO N CENTRAL
HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 84W-89W
ACROSS PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE N.
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 175 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO MOVING INTO INLAND
NICARAGUA. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS WITH A FEW AREAS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN
ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. ALOFT...MOSTLY DRY AIR IS
IMPACTING THE AREA AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED FAR
TO THE E ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC. EXPECT REMNANTS OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN CARIBBEAN WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE ERN SEABOARD AND THE
FAR W ATLC WATERS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR
32N72W TOWARDS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W CONTINUING INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE E SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER BETWEEN 48W-68W. A CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO
SPIN IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N46W WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION
1015 MB LOW NEAR 26N46W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE
LOW CENTER ALONG 28N48W 24N45W 18N48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
MAINLY NE OF THE SYSTEM FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 39W-47W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH ELSEWHERE. A
ZONAL WLY SUBTROPICAL JET IS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL
AND ERN ATLC WITH MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. A BROAD
AND FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED
OVER WRN GUINEA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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