[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGE THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM WESTERN IVORY COAST NEAR 5N6W ALONG
2N15W TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 24W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3N42W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS WITHIN 190 NM N OF THE
AXIS. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING WITHIN 130 NM OF THE COAST
OF BRAZIL BETWEEN 35W AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND SINKING AIR
ALOFT. AT SURFACE...ANTICYCLONIC LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE
ACROSS THE BASIN...ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH OVER SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA. THIS FLOW IS BRINGING A COOLER AIR MASS TO THE GULF.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST WITH
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS ALOFT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT THE NW BASIN...DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
AREA FROM CENTRAL CUBA EXTENDING TO BELIZE ALONG 22N79W 20N83W
16N89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF 2ON W OF 85W...AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT AXIS E OF 85W. NORTHERLY WINDS
UP TO 20 KT ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT. MARINE OBS ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SHOW 5-15 KT WINDS FROM THE NE. THIS FLOW
IS BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...ENHANCING SOME CLUSTERS OF WEAK SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE CONUS
SEABOARD SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W ATLC REGION
ALONG 32N72W AND EXTENDS SW TO ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 26N75W
22N79W. THIS FRONT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 40 NM AHEAD OF IT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. FARTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL
CUT-OFF LOW IS NEAR 26N48W SUPPORTING A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
THE SAME LOCATION. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 30N55W TO
THE LOW CENTER...THEN CONTINUES SSW ALONG 23N45W TO NEAR 17N52W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS S
OF 24N. SIMILAR CONVECTION ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SURROUND THE LOW LEVEL CENTER FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 38W-48W. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED N OF 29N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W GENERATING
SEAS 15 TO 18 FT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RELATIVELY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE OCEAN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA/MONTALVO




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net