[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU MAR 10 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE LIBERIA COAST NEAR 6N11W TO 2N20W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR ALONG 26W...INTO BRAZIL NEAR 5S42W. NUMEROUS STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 10W AND
15W...AND FROM 1S TO 2N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH
OF THE EQUATOR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT GOES FROM
THE EQUATOR ALONG 16W...4S27W...4S35W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG
35W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N TO THE EAST
OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING THROUGH
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY OF THE U.S.A. SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO MEXICO NEAR 25N97W AND
26N102W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO 23N91W IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA.
A SQUALL LINE PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N86W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N89W
BEYOND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. THE LINE OF CLEARING SKIES IS TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 24N98W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...
AND IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE
OF MEXICO...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
OVER ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR THE NICARAGUA/
COSTA RICA BORDER. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF 70W...
IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. OTHER CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE
FROM 15N TO HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA BETWEEN 71W AND 79W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 35N58W.
THIS CYCLONIC CENTER IS CAUGHT UP IN A MUCH LARGER AREA OF
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW THAT COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN
43W AND 65W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO
A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N58W. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE 1011 MB LOW CENTER TO
24N40W AND 21N33W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1011 MB LOW
CENTER TO 23N50W AND 22N53W...BECOMING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT FROM 22N53W TO 23N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN
48W AND 51W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 27N TO 30N
BETWEEN 43W AND 50W. BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N39W
BEYOND 31N47W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...IN THE AREA OF
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ALSO ARE WITHIN
90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N33W 24N24W BEYOND 28N15W.
A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM 30N16W TO 28N20W TO 27N27W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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