[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED MAR 09 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 06N10W CROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR
25W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 03S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 07W-12W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04N BETWEEN 31W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE U.S...WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN OVER PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT AS OF
09/2100 UTC IS ANALYZED FROM VERMILION BAY NEAR 29N92W SW TO
SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS NEAR 26N97W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS
LOCATED EAST OF THE FRONT AND EXTENDS FROM THE NEW ORLEANS AREA
SW ALONG 25N94W TO 21N96W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND LIGHTNING
DATA INDICATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS WELL EAST OF
THE FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA...NORTHERN
FLORIDA...AND THE NE GULF N OF 27N BETWEEN 83W AND 90W. AS THE
COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SW GULF S OF 20N W
OF 95W EARLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE GULF LATE THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS NOTED IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS EVENING MAINTAINING GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN
AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH OF JAMAICA AND THE TIBURON
PENINSULA OF HAITI OCCURRING FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 73W-77W.
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE
BASIN...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS TURNING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE
COASTAL WATERS NEAR THE COLOMBIA COAST WHERE SPEEDS ARE IN THE
20-25 KT RANGE AND UP TO 30 KT RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
CURRENTLY IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY
LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY N-NE WINDS OF 20-25
KT. UNTIL THEN...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 74W ACROSS THE SW NORTH
ATLC AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG
THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N75W TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 22N78W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCOMPANY THIS RIDGE W OF 63W...HOWEVER...WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT BY LATE THURSDAY...A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL
LINE OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE ATLC WATERS N OF 30N W OF
80W OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. THIS INTENSE LINE OF
TSTMS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SAVANNAH GEORGIA SW TO THE BIG BEND
REGION OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W AND INTO THE NE GULF. FARTHER EAST
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A CUT-OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 37N57W THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
AN OCCLUDED 1008 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 36N55W. THE
OCCLUSION EXTENDS SE TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 31N49W WITH A COLD
FRONT ANALYZED SOUTHWARD TO 25N50W THEN SW TO 23N55W AS IT
BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE AND RELATIVELY STATIONARY TO 23N62W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
A STATIONARY FRONT ALSO EXTENDS SE FROM THE LOW CENTER TO
22N35W. MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 300
NM TO THE NE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT ALSO DELINEATES WEAK
SURFACE WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND STRONGER...GRADIENT DRIVEN WINDS
NORTH OF THE FRONT. MINIMAL GALE FORCE E TO SE WINDS ARE
OCCURRING N OF 28N WITH AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS DEPICTING A LARGE
AREA OF WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 KT N OF 25N E OF THE
FRONT TO 35W. ELSEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM 32N34W TO NE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 18N22W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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