[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020550
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED MAR 02 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SOUTHERN LIBERIA TO 4N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG
42W...TO 2N30W...INTO BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH
OF 7N TO THE EAST OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA...THANKS
TO A RIDGE THAT IS ALONG 100W. THE COLD FRONT NOW PASSES OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA FROM 25N TO 26N AND THEN TO 26N87W IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AT
26N87W AND CONTINUES CURVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA TO THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A SURFACE
RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUDS THAT HAVE MOVED FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT EXTENDS
FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO THE EAST CENTRAL COAST OF NICARAGUA.
OTHER CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 16N TO 19N
BETWEEN 77W AND 84W...AND NORTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT GOES FROM
17N71W TO 19N77W TO 21N85W COVERING SOME LAND/COASTAL WATERS
AREAS OF HISPANIOLA AND CUBA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH
THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS AND NOW IS IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N68W TO
28N73W...OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM 25N TO
26N. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM
TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N84W 25N80W 27N70W BEYOND 32N64W.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N57W...TO 24N70W...INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
29N43W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 34W AND 50W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N36W
TO 27N37W 20N43W...AND AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM
20N43W TO 16N49W. A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILS THE STATIONARY FRONT
WITHIN 90 NM TO 180 NM TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO THE NORTH
OF 20N. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN
35W AND 45W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 18N42W 12N47W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH SOUTH AMERICA TO 10N60W 20N40W 27N26W...AND CURVING
ACROSS THE WESTERN SAHARA INTO AFRICA. A SURFACE RIDGE IS
ALONG 9N38W 18N34W 28N29W BEYOND 32N27W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

THE 105 PM TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE
ON THURSDAY MARCH 03...DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS SYSTEM UPGRADE.

$$
MT



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