[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE MAR 01 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 4N8W 1N20W 1S30W AND GOING INTO
BRAZIL NEAR 3S40W. A LARGE BURST OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
IS IN THE GULF OF GUINEA FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 4E-1E. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 19W AND 28W ABOUT 250
NM N OF THE ITCZ. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO
OBSERVED BETWEEN 28W AND 31W ABOUT 230 NM S OF THE ITCZ. ANOTHER
AREA OF ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION LIES FROM 1N TO
4N BETWEEN 40W AND 42W.


...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT THAT IS CROSSING CENTRAL FLORIDA
EXTENDS TO THE CENTER OF THE GULF ALONG 28N83W 26N89W AND THEN
BECOMES STATIONARY TO 23N92W AND GOING INLAND INTO MEXICO AT THE
SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SOME CLUSTERS
OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
THE PORTION OF EASTERN GULF FROM 26N-27N BETWEEN 82W AND 84W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 20 NM BEHIND THE REST OF THE COLD
FRONT AND ABOUT 50 NM AHEAD OF IT. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
LIE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT AS SUGGESTED BY SOME CLOUDINESS
IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALOFT...STRONG UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS
FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA PROVIDING DRY AIR ACROSS THE GULF.
THIS IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER TO EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT REMAINS NE OF
THE BASIN ACROSS THE NW ATLC. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE
MOVING SE ACROSS THE BASIN WITH POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT INFLUENCED
BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 16N93W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ACROSS THE BASIN. THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN BROAD LOW PRESSURE ACROSS COLOMBIA AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS.
THE WINDS GAIN A CYCLONIC COMPONENT AROUND THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
WHERE A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER NRN COLOMBIA. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC COVERS THE FAR E
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
 A COLD FRONT CLIPS THE FAR WRN ATLC ENTERING THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 32N72W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 220 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 69W N OF 28N IS SUPPORTING THE FRONT.
TO THE E...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA EXTENDS NE AND OVER THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A 1021 MB
SURFACE HIGH NEAR 29N57W. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE RIDGING AND
DRY AIR ALOFT IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS BETWEEN THE
FRONT AND W OF 45W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL
ATLC BETWEEN 35W-55W SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A
1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 35N38W FROM WHERE A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 30N36W 22N39W THEN BECOMING A DYING
STATIONARY FRONT AT 13N46W. A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS FROM
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND LIES BEHIND THE STATIONARY FRONT
ALONG 30N39W ENDING NEAR 21N44W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ABOUT 130
NM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
MAINLY ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT N OF 25N BEING ENHANCED BY
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AROUND THE ERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY BOTH UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGING
WHICH IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS PORTION
OF THE BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR/CW




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