[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260553
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA EXTENDING FROM
15N24W ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 7N26W MOVING W NEAR 15
KT. THE WAVE WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EWD TO BETTER ALIGN WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS. THE WAVE IS OF THE WRN EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM
5N-10N BETWEEN 19W-23W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 27W-32W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N50W TO 12N54W W NEAR 15 KT. THE
WAVE PRECEDES A SURGE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXITING THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 23N84W TO
19N88W MOVING WNW NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE LIES ON THE NW SIDE OF A
LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS THE WRN
CARIBBEAN. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS INDICATED
BY SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS N OF WRN CUBA WITHIN 100 NM NW OF THE WAVE AXIS.
SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO MOVING ACROSS THE WRN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AS THE WAVE MOVES WNW.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN
AT 22N ALONG 23N5W TO THE COAST AT 13N17W. THE ITCZ AXIS
CONTINUES FROM THE COAST ALONG 11N26W 7N37W 3N49W. THE ONLY
AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES. SEE
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN TO DIE DOWN OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG A LINE FROM TAMPA FLORIDA NEAR
29N83W TO THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 23N98W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN WITHIN 50 NM OF THIS LINE.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FLARED UP OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO
INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND S FLORIDA FROM 23N-26N E OF
87W LIKELY INFLUENCED BY A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING OUT OF
THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CURRENTLY LIES OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE
NRN GULF EXTENDING FROM MOBILE ALABAMA TO THE SRN TIP OF TEXAS
WHICH IS CAUSING MOIST SWLY FLOW OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN
WITH A SMALL AREA OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FAR NW GULF
WHICH IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER. MOIST CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN...ESPECIALLY THE SE GULF...AS
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE BASIN...AND THE TROPICAL WAVE
OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL MOVES WNW INTO THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...BUT WILL SOON BE MOVING OUT OF THE BASIN INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS BEHIND THE
WAVE ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN W OF 77W. A CLUSTER OF STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER NRN COLOMBIA FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 73W-77W
INFLUENCED BY THE HIGH MOISTURE VALUES AND THE MONSOON TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS NICARAGUA TO NRN
COLOMBIA. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO FLARED UP OVER
NICARAGUA FOR THE SAME REASONING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER NRN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS.
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WRN
CARIBBEAN. THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS
WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE 15-20 KT ELY
TRADEWIND FLOW. ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE WRN
CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING
FROM AN UPPER LOW N OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN
AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THIS AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE FAR WRN ATLC
EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD AND INTO THE NRN GULF. A NARROW
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS TO THE E OF THE TROUGH FROM THE WRN
CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN CREATES AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 75 NM OF A LINE FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W TO
31N75W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 19N-25N BETWEEN 62W-68W
DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 24N69W. UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING WEAK SURFACE RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN ATLC ALONG 29W SUPPORTING A FRONTAL
SYSTEM N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A LARGE SAHARAN AIR LAYER
CONSISTING OF DRY AND DUSTY AIR IS ACROSS THE ERN AND CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLC E OF 50W SURROUNDING THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT
EXTENDS THROUGH THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON




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