[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE STARTS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N25W AND IT CONTINUES TO 12N27W TO
8N29W. CYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS WERE BLOWING AROUND THIS WAVE
ACCORDING TO THE ASCAT WINDS FROM LATE YESTERDAY/EARLY THIS
MORNING. PRECIPITATION EASILY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.
IT IS NOT EASY TO DENOTE PRECIPITATION THAT JUST IS RELATED
TO THE TROPICAL WAVE ONLY.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N48W 14N49W 11N50W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 45W AND 51W REACHING
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL.

A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W/86W
TO THE SOUTH OF 20N...NOW PASSING THROUGH EASTERN HONDURAS AND
NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF
A BROAD CYCLONIC ENVELOPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH STARTS IN
NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA AND PASSES THROUGH NORTHWESTERN PANAMA
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. PRACTICALLY ALL THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS OVER THE
WATERS. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
12N TO 14N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA THAT GOES FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 76W AND 84W...
REACHING EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS AND WATERS OF NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE
WEST OF 80W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 24N
AND IT CONTINUES TO 18N9W 22N14W 18N23W...AND FROM 7N32W TO
5N36W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 5N36W 4N44W 2N52W IN EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN THE COAST OF
AFRICA AND 28W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM
3N TO 4N BETWEEN 29W AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TO THE
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...TO THE WEST CENTRAL
GULF WATERS. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N
TO 23N BETWEEN 96W AND 97W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N82W
27N91W 22N98W. MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE INLAND IN FLORIDA FROM 60 TO 120 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A WEAK 1006 LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 19N94W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA. THIS PRECIPITATION IS TO THE WEST OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT
IS ALONG 85W/86W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH
AN AREA OF A BROAD CYCLONIC ENVELOPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH STARTS
IN NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA AND PASSES THROUGH NORTHWESTERN PANAMA
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO
THE WATERS THAT ARE ABOUT 120 NM TO THE EAST OF THE MEXICO/
NORTHERN BELIZE BORDER. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 23N69W...ABOUT 165 NM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING
AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM 15N TO 29N BETWEEN 65W AND 76W. MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
LAND/WATER AREAS THAT ARE TO THE EAST OF 70W. THE 24 HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL FOR TRINIDAD FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 25/1200 UTC
WAS 1.53 INCHES.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA
INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS ITS ORIGINS MORE TO THE
NORTHEAST...ALONG THE U.S.A. NORTHEAST COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS IN BETWEEN THAT TROUGH AND AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW THAT COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN
SEA  FROM 15N TO 29N BETWEEN 65W AND 76W. AN UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N69W...ABOUT 165 NM TO
THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. A SEPARATE
AREA OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW APPEARS TO BE CENTERED
AROUND 22N52W. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 15N TO 27N BETWEEN 43W AND 55W. MORE CYCLONIC FLOW IS
WITHIN 100 TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N38W 27N31W 20N32W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 34N35W
TO 31N41W, AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
34N15W...ABOUT 330 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS.
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 31N46W TO 28N66W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH
OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 43W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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