[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241032
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 16N41W 11N44W TO
6N45W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF A SURGE OF DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER
LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 76W/77W S OF 19N
MOVING WNW NEAR 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF
DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA BETWEEN
75W-77W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ALONG 20N10W THEN SW
INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 18N16W 11N22W TO 4N28W WHERE IT
CONTINUES AS THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG 1N35W ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
41W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN
20W-29W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM
5N-10N E OF 17W TO THE COAST OF SW AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA SW ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THEN ACROSS E TEXAS TO N MEXICO
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W GULF ANCHORED JUST N OF MEXICO
CITY MEXICO EXTENDING AN AXIS NE ACROSS TUXPAN AND THE GULF
ALONG 26N89W TO OVER NE FLORIDA NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA. THE
SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE W GULF HAS MOVED INLAND
ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM OVER THE N GULF COAST
NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 22N96W.
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS AREA WITHIN
60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 26N95W 24N96W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE SE
GULF FROM 24N-27N E OF 84W TO COAST OF FLORIDA. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ALONG 25N THROUGH LATE SUN. STRONG TO NEAR
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED MON AS THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MOVES ACROSS YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE SW
GULF MON AND TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A NARROWING UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA NEAR
SANTA CLARA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR N BELIZE GENERATING
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
18N-20N BETWEEN 79W-84W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS E/W FROM THE
TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM E OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 11N79W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION OVER COSTA
RICA NEAR 10N84W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N W OF 78W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA TO N
NICARAGUA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA
FROM 14N-17N E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
INTO THE W CARIBBEAN TODAY THEN ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO GULF OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SECOND
TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE W TROPICAL ATLC AND WILL BE
IN E CARIBBEAN BY TUE. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TROPICAL
WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN AND SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W
ATLC WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE FLOW ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LOW COVERS THE W ATLC CENTERED NEAR 24N70W NARROWING
AS IT ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 76W-80W WITH MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA. A SECOND AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N-27N
BETWEEN 65-69W. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH
32N38W TO 25N42W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 32N45W TO 31N48W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES
ALONG 28N54W TO 27N61W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 56W-60W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 45 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT/TROUGH. A SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA SPLIT
BY THE ABOVE FRONT/TROUGH WITH ONE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OVER THE
E ATLC THROUGH 32N31W TO A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 27N41W AND A SECOND
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N60W TO A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH
NEAR 27N69W THEN W TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS IS
GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR CONDITIONS AGAIN THIS
MORNING. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC
ALONG 12W/13W ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN. SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT N
TO 30N LATE FRI AND BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
 HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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