[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 13N42W TO 7N44W
MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
SURGE OF DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 74W/75W S OF 17N
MOVING W NEAR 25 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF
DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE AREA FROM 20N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN
68W-79W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ALONG 17N13W THEN S
INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W 6N19W TO 3N28W WHERE IT
CONTINUES AS THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG 1N36W ALONG THE EQUATOR NEAR
43W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
BETWEEN 6N-11N. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE INLAND AND
WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA BETWEEN 2W-7W AND FROM
3N-7N BETWEEN 20W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROADENING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA SW
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THEN ACROSS E/CENTRAL TEXAS
TO N MEXICO WITH A RELAXING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W GULF ANCHORED
JUST N OF MEXICO CITY MEXICO EXTENDING AN AXIS NE ACROSS TUXPAN
ACROSS THE GULF ALONG 26N90W TO OVER NE FLORIDA NEAR THE BIG
BEND AREA. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THIS UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING AT 24/0300 UTC FROM 29N93W TO 27N95W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF A LINE FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PANAMA CITY ALONG 25N90W TO 21N95W. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS OBSERVED OVER THE SE GULF ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS FLORIDA
BETWEEN TAMPA AND FORT MYERS TO THE W TIP CUBA. THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER BASIN THROUGH LATE SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A NARROWING UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA NEAR
SANTA CLARA TO THE YUCATAN JUST N OF BELIZE GENERATING CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 60
NM ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 78W AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS E/W FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE S
CARIBBEAN TO CENTRAL AMERICA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS
THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W INTO THE E PACIFIC
REGION OVER COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N W OF 75W TO INLAND OVER
PANAMA TO N NICARAGUA. SEE ABOVE FOR THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL WAVE
WILL CROSS THE W CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MOVING INTO GULF
OF MEXICO ON MON. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ENTER THE W TROPICAL
ATLC ON SUN AND INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ON TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LOW COVERS THE W ATLC CENTERED NEAR 26N70W NARROWING
AS IT ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN
76W-80W. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N38W TO
26N43W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AND A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N48W TO 28N57W WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 51W-67W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA SPLIT BY THE ABOVE
FRONT/TROUGH WITH ONE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OVER THE E ATLC
THROUGH 32N29W TO 23N43W AND A SECOND RIDGE AXIS OVER THE W ATLC
THROUGH 32N62W TO A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 28N67W THEN W TO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS IS GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR
CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 11W/12W ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN. SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL DRIFT N TO NEAR 30N LATE FRI THEN
BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
 HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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