[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 14N33W TO 6N37W
MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
SURGE OF DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 68W/69W S OF 16N
MOVING W NEAR 25 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF
DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ALONG 18N10W THEN S
INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 6N18W WHERE IT CONTINUES
AS THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG 5N22W TO THE E SIDE OF A TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 8N33W THEN CONTINUES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 9N40W INTO SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 7N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 13W-17W INCLUDING THE COAST OF
W AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN
18W-27W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 48W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA S ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THEN SW ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS TO NW
MEXICO AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W GULF ANCHORED NEAR
MEXICO CITY MEXICO EXTENDING AN AXIS NE ALONG 25N94W TO INLAND
OVER THE SE CONUS NEAR THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING AT 23/0900 UTC FROM
JUST W OF THE CHANDELEUR ISLANDS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA
ALONG 26N94W TO OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO TO NEAR 22N96W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO
INLAND OVER S LOUISIANA...TO THE COAST OF TEXAS...AND WITHIN 120
NM E OF THE TROUGH N OF 27N. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE W ATLC TO OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA JUST N OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS OBSERVED OVER THE SE GULF ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP WITHIN 120 NM OFF THE W FLORIDA COAST N OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS INTO APALACHEE BAY. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE SE
GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL MOVE N OF THE AREA TODAY. AFTERWORDS...A SURFACE
RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE N PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE S PART OF THE
AREA ON SUNDAY ILL PRECEDE A TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 19N BETWEEN
79W-84W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS E/W FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC
ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN TO CENTRAL AMERICA. THE MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W INTO
THE E PACIFIC REGION OVER COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W GENERATING
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W OF 75W TO
INLAND OVER PANAMA TO S NICARAGUA. SEE ABOVE FOR THE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED
SHOWERS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN S OF 15N WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 15N IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING. THE E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TODAY REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN FRI WHERE ITS WESTWARD
PROGRESS WILL SLOW THEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUN NIGHT. A SECOND
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO W TROPICAL ATLC EARLY SUN THEN MOVE
INTO THE E CARIBBEAN MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N63W
ALONG 27N71W TO ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN
68W-78W INCLUDING THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE TURKS AND
CAICOS. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT N OF THE
DISCUSSION AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N53W TO
27N67W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDING FROM THE E ATLC THROUGH 32N32W
NARROWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR
25N48W CONTINUING S OF THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE W
ATLC TO OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA JUST N OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THIS IS
GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR CONDITIONS AGAIN THIS
MORNING. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC
ALONG 11W/12W ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN. SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT N
TO 30N FRI NIGHT AND BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
 HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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