[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230536
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 13N33W TO 6N35W
MOVING W 20-25 KT. WAVE REMAINS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
SURGE OF DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 16N64W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N66W MOVING W 20-25 KT. WAVE
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W AND 150 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ALONG 20N6W THEN S
ALONG 15N12W INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 8N17W WHERE
IT CONTINUES AS THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG 6N21W TO THE E SIDE OF A
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 10N32W THEN CONTINUES W OF THE WAVE NEAR
10N37W TO 8N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
6N-10N BETWEEN 11W-16W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF W AFRICA. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM S OF THE
ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 19W-22W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 38W-48W
AND WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 7N53W TO 10N60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A NARROWING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA SW TO
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ACROSS W TEXAS AND NW MEXICO
AMPLIFYING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W GULF ANCHORED NEAR MEXICO
CITY MEXICO EXTENDING AN AXIS NE ALONG 26N94W TO INLAND OVER THE
SE CONUS NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THIS
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING AT 23/0300 UTC FROM SE LOUISIANA NEAR
29N90W ALONG 26N95W TO MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS S/CENTRAL
FLORIDA JUST S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO OVER THE E GULF. DRY STABLE
AIR ALOFT IS OBSERVED OVER THE E GULF ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED INLAND
OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA YESTERDAY EVENING HAVE MOVED JUST OFFSHORE
WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA BETWEEN FORT MYERS AND
CEDAR KEY LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE E AT 25-30 KT
TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS JUST N OF JAMAICA
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
N OF 18N BETWEEN 77W-84W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS E/W FROM THE
TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN TO CENTRAL AMERICA. THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA
NEAR 10N75W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION OVER COSTA RICA NEAR
11N84W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND
WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST FROM PANAMA TO SE NICARAGUA. SEE
ABOVE FOR THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE
E CARIBBEAN. THIS LEAVES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN
WILL ENTER W CARIBBEAN FRI THROUGH SUN AS ITS WESTWARD PROGRESS
SLOWS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
INTO THE W TROPICAL N ATLC LATE SAT AND INTO E CARIBBEAN ON MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N66W TO
ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 74W-79W.
THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ALONG THE N
PERIPHERY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN 32N60W TO 31N64W. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA
EXTENDING FROM THE E ATLC THROUGH 32N32W NARROWING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 26N55W CONTINUING
ACROSS THE W ATLC AND S/CENTRAL FLORIDA JUST S OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS GIVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT. AN E/W
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 11W/12W
ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN. SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT N TO 30N FRI
NIGHT AND BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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