[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142325
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N24W TO 1N29W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS.
CONVECTION IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE ITCZ. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN
20W-32W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 16N59W TO 7N61W
MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS IS A WELL DEFINED WAVE WITH A LARGE
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELD. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
6N-17N BETWEEN 57W-62W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 19N71W TO 7N72W
MOVING NW 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE
COMING FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE WAVE AMPLIFICATION OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM
18N-20N BETWEEN 69W-72W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM INLAND AFRICA AT 22N00W TO
17N10W TO THE COAST AT 13N17W TO 7N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG
7N23W 4N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA AT 4N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER INLAND AFRICA FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 5W-11W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 20W-32W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO AT 27N89W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE GULF. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS
DOMINATES THE GULF N OF 23N. COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MOSTLY
E OF 82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND S MEXICO. THE FAR N GULF IS UNDER A LAYER OF DENSE
SMOKE N OF A LINE FROM TAMPA FLORIDA TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AS
INDICATED BY NOAA SSD FIRE DETECTION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
20N89W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE SE
GULF AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT...CONTINUED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BAY OF
CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE.
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR
10N81W. THIS LOW IS EMBEDDED IN A MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM N COLOMBIA TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC ALONG 10N. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 78W-85W.
FURTHER E...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
N VENEZUELA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 62W-70W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA...JAMAICA
...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER NICARAGUA. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N OF PANAMA
NEAR 13N80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT MORE
CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN AS THE TROPICAL WAVES MOVE W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N59W 29N61W
26N70W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-29N
BETWEEN 62W-68W. A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 29N40W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
33N68W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS CENTERED IS ENHANCING
THE  CONVECTION OVER THE THE W ATLANTIC SURFACE TROUGH.

F0R ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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