[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N22W TO 2N25W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS AND
REMAINS CAUGHT BETWEEN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM
3N-8N BETWEEN 20W-26W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N53W TO 6N55W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED BY
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH WITH THE NEARBY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH AND NOT THE WAVE ITSELF.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N65W INLAND OVER VENEZUELA TO 9N67W
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL
SATELLITE WINDS BUT HAS LOST THE WELL DEFINED SATELLITE
SIGNATURE THAT IT HAD 24 HOURS AGO BEFORE IT ENTERED THE DRY AIR
OF THE CARIBBEAN. THUS...DUE TO THE DRY AIR THERE IS NO
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA ENTERING THE E ATLC
NEAR 18N16W TO 9N20W WHERE THERE IS A BREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N27W ALONG 4N33W TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 16W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK UPPER LOW REMAINS NEAR 23N91W EXTENDING SW INTO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO NEAR THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT 14/1500 UTC EXTENDS FROM
22N94W TO S MEXICO NEAR 18N93W AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 26N87W.
DRY STABLE AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE W GULF MAINLY W OF 90W
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE FAR N GULF IS UNDER A LAYER OF DENSE
SMOKE N OF A LINE FROM TAMPA FLORIDA TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AS
INDICATED BY NOAA SSD FIRE DETECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE SE GULF S OF 25N E OF 90W. THE SURFACE RIDGE
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THU THEN SHIFTING TO OVER
THE N GULF FRI AND SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED
IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N79W. DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE
AREA FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 63W-80W. A WEAK 1007 MB SURFACE LOW IS
ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 10N80W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING TO SE NICARAGUA NEAR 11N84W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND
SURROUNDING THE LOW. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER
CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MOVING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES DUE TO AN UPPER TROUGH JUST
E OF THE ISLANDS. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE
W INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THEN W CARIBBEAN THU AND
FRI. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC WILL ENTER
THE E CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT THEN CENTRAL AND W CARIBBEAN THU
THROUGH SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 27N BETWEEN 60W-78W WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT 14/1500 UTC EXTENDS FROM 32N71W TO
19N79W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE E EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N62W TO 28N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 26N71W TO 31N57W. AN UPPER TROUGH IN
THE CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO NARROW AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM 20N62W TO BEYOND
32N54W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 20N68W TO 26N57W. THE
CENTRAL ATLC UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N40W SW ALONG 25N47W
INTO THE TROPICS TO NEAR 12N56W. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AREA OF THE
UPPER RIDGE/TROUGH IS A WEAK 1016 MB LOW NEAR 29N59W MOVING
NORTHWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE AREA FROM
7N-15N BETWEEN 50W-60W AND ARE MOVING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES
INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 55W SPLIT BY A COLD FRONT THAT IS N
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND A 1024 MB HIGH W OF THE FRONT NEAR
34N44W AND A 1025 MB HIGH E OF THE FRONT NEAR 33N26W. THE
SURFACE RIDGE NARROWS BEYOND 55W ALONG 23N/24N INTO THE S GULF
OF MEXICO THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE W ATLC SURFACE
TROUGH WILL REACH FROM 31N71W TO JUST N OF GRAND BAHAMA WED
MORNING THEN FROM BERMUDA TO 27N73W THU MORNING THEN INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC BY FRI MORNING. MEANWHILE THE NARROW W ATLC SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT RETREAT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC BY THU. A NEW
SURFACE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ALONG 29N FRI INTO SAT.

F0R ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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