[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090528
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUN 09 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N22W 10N25W 5N26W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 20W AND 27W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 16N
TO 14N14W TO 6N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 8N28W 6N40W 4N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 20W AND 27W. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO...THANKS TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR
26N88W IN THE CENTER OF THE AREA. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS.
AREAS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 90W ALONG
THE FLORIDA COAST AND IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 18.5N 81.5W...ABOUT 75 NM
TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND 240 NM TO THE WEST OF
JAMAICA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA OF THIS LOW CENTER. HEAVY RAINS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHERNMOST PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS
PRECIPITATION MAY CAUSE CONTINUAL PROBLEMS WITH FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES IN SECTIONS OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
JAMAICA...AND CUBA AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ENVELOPES THE
AREA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING IN
CENTRAL NICARAGUA NEAR UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. OTHER
PRECIPITATION IS IN EXTREME EASTERN HONDURAS AND IN WESTERN
HONDURAS. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CELLS
ARE IN NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA NEAR THE PANAMA BORDER...AND
FROM LAKE MARACAIBO OF NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA INTO NEARBY
NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING
IN AN AREA OF BROAD SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. IT HAS BEEN RAINING
NEARLY EVERYWHERE AROUND THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN FOR
MOST OF THE LAST WEEK IN THE WATERS AND LAND AREAS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N53W TO 21N62W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 20N65W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 22N63W...TO 24N60W 29N50W BEYOND 32N46W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 14N TO 21N BETWEEN 56W AND 60W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH
OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 60W. A 1019 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
33N71W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N27W TO 24N40W AND 17N56W.

F0R ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT








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